The problem started when the US Department of Labor Statistics failed to announce the key revisions to employment data at 10 am New York time as expected.
At present, events that keep Wall Street busy are affecting the market.
But as traders and analysts prepare for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole and next week's earnings from Nvidia (NVDA.US) and economic growth data, many of them are troubled by the terrible employment data announced by the US government on Wednesday in New York time, along with the chaos it caused in the stock and bond markets.
These traders and analysts were outspoken in their criticism. Glen Capelo, Managing Director of Mischler Financial Group, said, "This is terrible." Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, said, "This is a big problem." Andrew Brenner, Head of International Fixed Income at NatAlliance Securities, said, "This is insane."
The problem began when the US Department of Labor Statistics failed to release the key revisions to employment data as expected at 10 a.m. New York time.
When US Department of Labor Statistics officials subsequently began providing data to analysts who called the agency, the error became even more serious. These data showed that employment growth expectations would be significantly revised downwards.
Therefore, in those painful minutes, a few companies including BNP Paribas and Mizuho Financial Group were privy to this information, while everyone else was kept in the dark, allowing the market to fluctuate. Rumors were rampant, with some providing the correct numbers, and others spreading incorrect figures. Ultimately, shortly after 10:30 am New York time, the US Department of Labor Statistics released the data on its website, which showed that the number of jobs created in March could be revised downwards by 0.818 million, the largest drop since 2009.
Brenner was one of the victims of this incident. He heard an economist on the media mention that the revised number had dropped by 0.676 million and quickly shared this number with clients. However, "about 10 minutes later, everyone corrected me," he said. "The government uses outdated systems, and I don't think they realize how important these numbers are."
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In fact, this recent release of poor data is just the latest in a series of embarrassing events related to the release of data by the US Department of Labor. For a long time, these data have been important guides for investors trying to determine the economic health and interest rate trends.
In May of this year, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics accidentally released consumer price data 30 minutes early. A month ago, records show that an economist at the agency answered numerous inquiries from Wall Street giants such as JPMorgan and BlackRock about details of inflation indicator-related data, sparking questions about selective information disclosure. At the end of 2022, moments before the inflation data was released, equity index futures soared, prompting speculation about leakage of inflation data.
Indeed, over the years, the volatile financial markets have been plagued by a variety of things. False press releases and premature company announcements often trigger market fluctuations. However, US government data plays a huge role in shaping people's views on the economy, making the lack or defect of any data a major cause of panic.
A spokesperson stated on Wednesday that the agency's inspector general has been asked to investigate the incidents and said, "The integrity of our data release is the top priority of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and we are closely reviewing our procedures to ensure that this situation does not occur in the future." Representatives from BNP Paribas and Mizuho Bank did not respond to requests for comment outside of normal business hours.
It should be clarified that the dissatisfaction on Wall Street is not directed at the companies trying to obtain this data, as they also want access to this data. The discontent on Wall Street is almost entirely directed at the government.
Capelo harshly criticized the government's data handlers, saying, "In fact, they knew long ago that this number was important, but they messed it up."
One key reason that infuriates Capelo is that these data release issues occur time and time again, leaving many in the market in a dilemma. "Is this completely unfair? Of course. Should it change? Absolutely. We are not living in the Stone Age. This issue should be easily resolved."
Typically, the data involved does not spark much interest outside the field of economics.
However, this time, this data has attracted more attention. In recent weeks, both the stock market and the bond market have been rising, and the market speculates that the labor market is cooling significantly and the Fed will eventually start to cut interest rates. These data ultimately help confirm this situation, indicating that the government has actually overestimated the number of jobs created.
But the data release has caused the market to fluctuate. For investors, it is difficult to determine whether this number is positive or negative for the stock market. For bonds, the market is more clearly optimistic. However, even so, these trends are disjointed. The only thing that is certain is that the trading volume soared within half an hour of the data delay announcement.
Vineer Bhansali, the founder of asset management company LongTail Alpha, said that at the time, he was not actively trading in the US Treasury market. But he still realized how bad it was for him or anyone else who was caught off guard by this bet.
Bhansali echoed the criticism that many people have raised: the government needs to take action to quickly address these issues. "This issue is definitely something people should be concerned about."