上海中期期货则表示，现货运价方面，8月初各家船司报价逐步向中枢8500美金收敛，后续8月下旬运价可能进一步下降，需观察主要航司运价下调的频率和幅度。整体来看，地缘冲突仍未有结束迹象，后续运力供给有所放宽，现货运价频繁调降下市场信心略显不足。Shipping stocks fell the most. As of the time of publication, Orient Overseas (00316) fell by 8.01%, to 105.6 Hong Kong dollars; COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) fell by 5.70%, to 8.61 Hong Kong dollars; COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) fell by 4.20%, to 10.48 Hong Kong dollars; Pacific Basin (02343) fell by 3.29%, to 2.06 Hong Kong dollars.
According to the Zhongtong Financial APP, shipping stocks fell the most. As of the time of publication, Orient Overseas (00316) fell by 8.01%, to 105.6 Hong Kong dollars; COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) fell by 5.70%, to 8.61 Hong Kong dollars; COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) fell by 4.20%, to 10.48 Hong Kong dollars; Pacific Basin (02343) fell by 3.29%, to 2.06 Hong Kong dollars.
Fitch Bohua pointed out that the short-term index of container shipping routes has risen rapidly, increasing market volatility. The tension in the Red Sea region may prompt the shipping industry to accept more container ships, while the faster expected economic growth in the usa and europe, easing inflationary pressures, and the global commodity trade recovery may all drive the growth in global container transportation demand in 2024. However, the Red Sea crisis remains a major uncertain factor affecting container transportation demand. Once the crisis is resolved, the market may once again face the problem of overcapacity, which may lead to a further decline in freight rates to even lower levels.
Shanghai International Shipping Futures stated that in terms of spot freight rates, in early August, the quotes of various shipping companies gradually converged to around 8500 US dollars. Subsequent freight rates in late August may further decrease, requiring observation of the frequency and extent of the price cuts by major shipping companies. Overall, there is still no sign of an end to the geopolitical conflict, and the subsequent easing of capacity supply in the spot freight market has slightly reduced market confidence.
