Despite some strength following the selloff peak on August 5th, the price of ethereum remains below $2,800.

Currently, it still faces significant selling pressure and is in a long-term downtrend. Over the past two weeks, the price has been hovering in the range of $2550 to $2730.

At the same time, Ethereum users are increasingly choosing to engage in private transactions that consume more gas. This has increased the volatility of transaction fees and the performance of the Ethereum ETF has been mixed. Today, Ethereum will have 0.14 million contracts expiring, which will intensify the short-term selling pressure in the market. However, whale activities and the increase in smart contracts, combined with the long-term consolidation at around $2600, are expected to pave the way for a significant increase in price.

The impact of spot ETFs and ecosystem growth.

Since the approval of spot ETFs in July, institutions have been eager to find opportunities. BlackRock's ETHA quickly established its market-leading position, becoming the first ETH ETF with net inflows exceeding $1 billion. This demonstrates the growing influence of ETHA in the crypto field. However, not all ETFs have achieved such success.

Grayscale's ETHE has been facing continuous outflows, and overall market sentiment remains cautious. Spot Ethereum ETF has seen outflows for four consecutive days. According to data, its cumulative outflows have reached $1.004 billion, and market dynamics indicate a mixed outlook for ETH ETF.

Its net inflows of $1 billion exceed the total of the next three Ethereum ETFs, highlighting its growing dominant position and investors' preference for regulated ETH exposure.

Therefore, if the current trend continues, we may soon see ETHE also switch to an inflow trend, which could have a significant impact on the price of ETH. The price was once expected to reach $4,000 after the ETF launch, but its actual performance was disappointing.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below neutral, indicating that the bearish force exceeds the bullish force. In addition, with the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands, the bearish momentum appears to be likely to continue.

In addition to the inflow of funds from the spot Ethereum ETF, there are some positive developments that may support the price. These include the reduction in gas fees for the mainnet and second layer solutions like Base.

The options are about to expire.

Today, Ethereum has options expiring worth $0.37839 billion, covering 141,410 contracts, lower than last week's 183,821. The maximum pain point is at $2,625, and the put/call ratio remains relatively stable at 0.92.

The biggest pain point in options trading is the price level, where most options expire worthless, causing the option holders to suffer the maximum financial loss, while the sellers receive minimal compensation. This level is often when market makers have the strongest motivation to manipulate prices.

The put/call ratio compares the number of put options (betting on a decline) to the number of call options (betting on an increase), providing further insight. A ratio below 1 indicates bullish sentiment, with more call options than put options, while a ratio above 1 indicates a bearish outlook.

This week's macro events and data have not caused significant fluctuations in the market, leading to a continuous decrease in the historical volatility (RV) of cryptocurrencies and a gradual decline in the volatility expectations of the options market.

However, historically, option contract expirations typically trigger intense but brief price fluctuations, leading to uncertainty and volatility for traders preparing for these changes. Nevertheless, the market generally stabilizes shortly after expiration.

There is an increase in whale activity and smart contracts.

There has also been an increase in whale activity on the Ethereum network. Before the price dropped, an important whale had already transferred a large amount of ETH to a centralized exchange (CEX).

In the past month, this whale has transferred 25,000 ETH ($73.9 million) to Kraken before two significant price drops. Despite these transfers, the whale still holds 41,639 ETH ($0.107 billion), estimated total profit of $0.131 billion.

Furthermore, as the amount of ETH locked in smart contracts approaches 40%, the scarcity of Ethereum is becoming more evident.

This development is advantageous for Ethereum, as any increase in demand could lead to significant price increases. Considering all these factors, along with recent positive tweets from Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum seems poised for long-term growth.

However, for the time being, it may be wise to take a cautious approach and gradually accumulate ETH in hopes of a potential turnaround.

ETH Price Prediction

Recently, Ethereum has been trading below the $2,700 resistance level. The support level remains clearly at $2,500. As the price consolidates, a bullish flag has formed, indicating that the price is about to strengthen. At the same time, the consolidation around $2,600 over the past two weeks may pave the way for a significant price increase.

Recently, the open interest in Ethereum has been fluctuating with the price, indicating a lack of confidence in the futures market. The transition of funding rates from negative to positive signals speculators going long. On the other hand, the decrease in spot CVD is a bearish signal that reinforces the lack of demand behind ETH.

The liquidation heat map highlights $2700 and $2500 as short-term price targets. Based on the current situation, it is very likely that Ethereum will rise to $2700 in the next few days. Therefore, the short-term Ethereum price forecast is bullish, and it may also move towards $2850. This trend will be driven by the magnet zone and may reverse, so you can wait for opportunities to sell on the rebound.

In short,

ETHA has seen over $1 billion in inflows, leading Ethereum ETF despite mixed market sentiment. Currently, private transactions are consuming more gas by users. This increases the volatility of transaction fees and is unfavorable to network users. Investors should also be cautious about potential breakouts. The volatility in open interest contracts and expiring ETH options indicates a lack of market confidence and demand.

In conclusion, I believe that the short-term upward trend of ETH is not clear and has limited potential. However, in the long run, the weakening impact of expiring options and the formation of a bull market flag will strengthen the price. Additionally, the increase in whale activity and smart contracts will drive market demand and pave the way for continued price increases in ETH, testing the resistance level of $2700.