Bitcoin is currently hovering above $60,000, and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech is scheduled for tonight (8/23) at 10 p.m. It may indicate a shift in USA monetary policy and impact the trends of bitcoin and risk assets.

After rebounding from a low of $49,000, Bitcoin is currently hovering around the 200-day moving average ($59,463), but the good news is that it has returned to above the $0.06 million integer level and is priced at $61,200 as of the time of writing.

However, US stocks performed poorly yesterday, with major indexes closing down under pressure from technology stocks. The market is waiting for a major event tonight: Powell's speech.

What might Powell's speech be about?

It is widely expected that Powell will be dovish in his speech, indicating that the Federal Reserve is about to begin easing monetary policy. The market expects a rate cut in September, and there is speculation that it will be at least 25 basis points. The latest FOMC meeting minutes also indicate that the majority of Fed officials believe a rate cut in September is appropriate.

However, most people expect Powell to be cautious in his speech. He may indicate that only a 25 basis point rate cut is expected in September and caution the market not to expect continuous rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Recent data shows signs of weakness in the US job market and a slowdown in inflation, which has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may shift to a more accommodative policy.

Possible impact on the trend of Bitcoin

Powell's speech may have a significant impact on bitcoin and the entire financial market. Historically, bitcoin has been highly sensitive to changes in US monetary policy. Generally, interest rate cuts reduce the attractiveness of fixed-income assets such as US bonds and make risk assets such as stocks and bitcoin more attractive.

Therefore, if Powell reveals a dovish stance, it could increase the inflow of funds into the market, and bitcoin may return to an upward trend.

However, if Powell's attitude tends to maintain or tighten monetary policy, it could lead to an increase in investor aversion to risk, causing funds to shift towards safer and more defensive assets, potentially putting pressure on the price of bitcoin.

Recently, US stocks have performed strongly, while bitcoin has struggled.

It is worth noting that although the major US stock indices fell last night, they have been performing very strongly recently, while bitcoin has not followed suit. Currently, the price of bitcoin is still far below the historical high of 73,777 USD, and this difference has raised concerns about the future market.

In addition, the bitcoin market seems to have overlooked other bullish factors, such as increased interest from institutional investors and continuous inflow of funds into bitcoin spot ETFs. In terms of politics, multiple foreign media reports have revealed that US candidate Kamala Harris is expected to announce her withdrawal on Friday and support Trump, who is friendly to the cryptocurrency industry. This could potentially bring bullish prospects for bitcoin.

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The interest rate cut in September is imminent. Although the first cut is unlikely to be so large, it is at least a cut, which is a good start for liquidity.

The current market is still in an adjustment phase and has not entered the typical bull market "master upswing". However, on the other hand, in the current complex and uncertain market environment, we seem to have ushered in a new bull market that cannot be completely "attached to the sword", especially in the background of the accelerated progress of bitcoin bull market brought by the launch of spot ETFs. The introduction of spot ETFs not only brings more institutional investment funds, but also enhances market participation and liquidity, while also bringing new complexities to the market. With the change of market sentiment and the reallocation of funds, there may be a new upward cycle in the future.