提前采取首次降息举措可能是合适的。In 2024, FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the magnitude of the first rate cut will depend on the data, whether it is 25 basis points or 50 basis points. If the unemployment rate unexpectedly soars, the Federal Reserve must take more aggressive action.
On the second day of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, another high-ranking official from the Federal Reserve came forward to "blow the wind" for a rate cut by the end of the year.
On Friday, 2024 FOMC voting member and President of the Atlanta Fed, Bossatik, said in an interview with Bloomberg that monetary policy is already close to normalization, and the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates once or more before the end of the year.
Taking early action to cut interest rates may be appropriate.
Bossatik also said on Friday that inflation has fallen faster than he expected, although inflation is not "particularly close" to the Federal Reserve's target.
The data shows that taking action on interest rates is appropriate. For me, I just want to make sure that the next few data points are consistent with this.
Bossatik listed the possible decisions that the Federal Reserve could make at the September monetary policy meeting, ranging from no rate cut to a 50 basis point rate cut. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates at the September meeting. Bossatik expects the long-term policy interest rate of the Federal Reserve to be 3%.
He said that the magnitude of the first rate cut, whether it is 25 basis points or 50 basis points, will depend on the data. If the unemployment rate unexpectedly soars, the Federal Reserve will have to take more aggressive action.
However, Borstik also pointed out that the significant revision of non-farm data did not change people's views on the job market - the labor market has undergone "significant changes", the unemployment rate has risen, but it is still "stable". The inflation dashboard is still flashing red, and the stable business environment gives the Fed room to remain patient.
The Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, on Thursday local time, kicked off. From the intensive statements on the first day, this annual event has become a "press conference" for Federal Reserve officials.
Three Federal Reserve officials expressed their views on future interest rate paths in separate interviews with different media:
Collins, a 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the Boston Fed, hinted at support for a rate cut in September, stating that the Fed may be suitable for a gradual and orderly rate cut.
Schmidt, President of the Kansas City Fed and also a 2025 FOMC voting member, stated that he was not yet ready to support a rate cut, but mentioned that rate policy should be determined by data.
Harker, President of the Philadelphia Fed and a FOMC voting member in 2026, also used the phrase "gradual and orderly" when discussing interest rate actions.