Jerome Powell: 'Time Has Come' For Interest Rate Cuts, Cooling In Labor Market 'Unmistakable'
Jerome Powell: 'Time Has Come' For Interest Rate Cuts, Cooling In Labor Market 'Unmistakable'
"The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," he said.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled Friday that it's time to adjust monetary policy, effectively paving the way for the beginning of interest rate cuts.
美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，现在是调整货币政策的时机，为降息的开始铺平了道路。
Powell refrained from committing to a predetermined path for rate cuts or providing any hints about their size, emphasizing the decision will depend on incoming data.
鲍威尔没有承诺预设降息路径或提供任何关于降息规模的暗示，强调决定将取决于即将到来的数据。
"My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent," the Fed chair said at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
美联储主席在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上表示：“我对通胀回到2%的可持续路径的信心增强。”
"The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," he said.
他说：“调整政策的时机已经到来。行程方向明确，降息的时间和速度将取决于即将到来的数据、演变中的前景和风险平衡。”
Powell acknowledged that tackling inflation might bring "some pain in the form of higher unemployment and slower growth," but added the current high interest rates provide the Fed with "ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions."
鲍威尔承认，解决通胀问题可能会带来“一些痛苦，包括高失业率和经济增长放缓”，但他补充说，当前较高的利率为美联储提供了“足够的回应任何风险，包括劳动力市场条件进一步恶化的风险”的空间。
Powell's speech signals the Fed is now placing greater emphasis on its dual mandate — price stability and maximum employment — and shifting away from its previous exclusive focus on inflation.
鲍威尔的讲话表明，美联储现在更加重视其双重任务——保持价格稳定和实现最大就业，摆脱了之前对通胀的专注。
"The cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable," Powell said, adding that "we do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions."
鲍威尔表示：“劳动力市场状况的降温是明显的”，补充说：“我们不寻求或欢迎劳动力市场状况进一步降温。”
Job gains are still solid but have decelerated this year, he said. Job vacancies have decreased, and the ratio of vacancies to unemployment has returned to its pre-pandemic range, the Fed chair said.
他说，今年的就业增长仍然稳定，但有所放缓。空缺职位减少，空缺与失业率的比例回到了疫情前的区间，美联储主席说。
Both hiring and quits rates have dropped below the levels seen in 2018 and 2019, while nominal wage growth has moderated. Overall, labor market conditions are now less tight than they were just before the pandemic in 2019.
招聘和离职率已经下降至2018年和2019年的水平以下，而名义工资增长已经放缓。总体而言，劳动力市场条件现在比2019年疫情爆发前要宽松。
The recent rise in unemployment is largely due to a significant increase in the supply of workers and a slowdown from the previously rapid pace of hiring, Powell said.
鲍威尔表示，最近失业率上升主要是由于劳动者供应量的显著增加，以及之前快速招聘步伐的放缓。
Market Reactions
市场反应
Treasury yields tumbled in reaction to the Powell's speech, sending the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) up by 0.8%.
国债etf的收益率在鲍威尔讲话后大幅下跌，导致纳斯达克的iShares 20+年国债etf（NASDAQ:TLT）上涨了0.8%。
The dollar tumbled against major currencies, with the rate-sensitive dollar-yen pair tumbling 0.6%.
美元兑主要货币大幅下跌，受利率敏感影响的美元-日元汇率下跌了0.6%。
Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), was up over 1%.
黄金，由纽交所的spdr金etf（NYSE:GLD）跃升超过1%。
Stocks also rose, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), up 1%. Small caps rallied, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM), up by 2.2%.
股票也上涨了，纽交所的spdr标普500 etf信托（NYSE:SPY）上涨了1%。小盘股上涨，纽交所的iShares罗素2000指数etf（NYSE:IWM）涨幅达2.2%。
Illustration created using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.
使用人工智能通过MidJourney创建的插图。