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美联储官员集体站队鲍威尔“放风”:不需要再紧缩了,是时候开始降息

Federal Reserve officials collectively voiced support for Powell's stance: no need for further tightening, it's time to start cutting rates.

wallstreetcn ·  Aug 23 17:18

During the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Philadelphia Fed President Harker repeatedly mentioned on Thursday and Friday that rate cuts should be done "in an orderly manner"; Chicago Fed President Evans stated that the Fed not only needs to fight inflation, but it is time to pay more attention to employment; the monetary policy is already quite tight now, the economy is not overheating, so there is no need to tighten monetary policy; Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that action should not wait until inflation falls completely to 2%, there may be more than one rate cut this year.

Using the platform of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Fed officials have repeatedly hinted at an interest rate cut. Besides the dovish Fed Chairman Powell, other officials either support the view that the economy does not need tightening or directly state how the interest rate should be lowered.

Harker has advocated for a "orderly" interest rate cut for two consecutive days.

On August 23, Eastern Daylight Time, the day after Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Conference, Patrick Harker, the president of the Philadelphia Fed, who will have voting rights at the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee FOMC meeting in 2026, mentioned the same view as Powell: It's time to start cutting interest rates. He emphasized that the interest rate cut should be carried out "orderly".

Harker mentioned that contacts in the Philadelphia Fed's jurisdiction told him that once the interest rate cut starts, it should not be stopped and started again. Harker said,

"I like the word 'orderly'... We should start this process and then continue."

Harker said he did not see a "serious" risk of a sudden rise in the unemployment rate, and Fed officials expect the unemployment rate not to rise above 5%. Harker expects that when the interest rate cut reaches its endpoint, which is a level that neither stimulates economic growth nor slows it down, the interest rate could be around 3%. This means that Harker expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of more than 200 basis points.

Wall Street News previously mentioned that on the first day of the Jackson Hole Conference, this Thursday, Harker proposed to cut interest rates "orderly". As for how much the interest rate should be cut in September, Harker said he needed to look at a few more weeks of data to determine. He also warned that it is better to focus on the prospect of a steady relaxation of monetary policy rather than a specific interest rate cut. Any specific interest rate cut is less important than the overall range of interest rate cuts.

It's worth mentioning that, in terms of wording, Powell's dovish inclination this Friday may exceed even Harker's. An article contributed by journalist Nick Timiraos, known as the 'New Fed Communication Agency', points out that recently, some Fed officials have expressed expectations for a series of 25 basis point rate cuts using vague terms such as 'gradual' and 'methodical'. Powell completely avoided using such words this Friday, which opens the door to a larger rate cut in the coming weeks once there are more serious signs of weakness in the labor market.

Goolsbee: It's time to focus more on employment, now that monetary policy is quite tight

Also, after Powell's speech, Austan Goolsbee, the Chicago Fed President who will have voting rights at the FOMC meeting in 2025, said on Friday that inflation in the US is currently moving towards the Fed's target of 2%, and it is time to pay more attention to the employment aspect in the Fed's dual mandate. Goolsbee said:

"As Chairman Powell said, we (the Fed) also hope to approach the employment aspect of our mission with caution. We are not only fighting against inflation, but inflation is moving towards 2%."

Goolsbee declined to reveal whether he supports a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in September, but pointed out that the current monetary policy is quite tight and no longer reflects the current state of the economy. He reiterated that there is no need to tighten monetary policy when the economy is not overheating. He said:

"I usually don't like to say anything 'tying our hands' before the (Fed) meeting, but for some time now, I have been saying that based on the current tightness of the Fed's interest rate target, policy would only be deliberately tightened when trying to cool down an overheated economy, and there is currently no overheating."

Goolsbee said he 'completely agrees' with Powell's concerns about the labor market. He believes that taking a comprehensive view of the labor market as a whole is crucial. He stated that almost all labor market indicators are cooling down, and it is currently uncertain whether it will move towards a more normal level or weaken further, with some labor markets showing 'warning signals'.

Bostic: We can't wait for inflation to drop to 2% before taking action; there may be more than one rate cut this year

Before Powell's speech, Raphael Bostic, the president of the Atlanta Fed, who has voting rights in this week's FOMC meeting, said that action should not wait until inflation has dropped completely to 2%. "It may be appropriate to implement the first interest rate adjustment ahead of time."

Bostic believes that monetary policy is already close to normalization. When asked by the media if he supports more than one interest rate cut this year, he responded, "It is possible."

Bostic also told another media outlet that the rate of inflation decline exceeded his expectations, although inflation is "not particularly close" to the Fed's target. He commented that there has been a "dramatic change" in the US labor market, with a rise in unemployment but still "steady".

Bostic said that the magnitude of the first interest rate cut will depend on the data. If the unemployment rate unexpectedly soars, "we must take greater action." At the same time, he also warned that if the inflation rate is too high, there is no need to take any measures.

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