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The Three-year Underlying Earnings Growth at Man Wah Holdings (HKG:1999) Is Promising, but the Shareholders Are Still in the Red Over That Time

Simply Wall St ·  Aug 23 18:22

If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term Man Wah Holdings Limited (HKG:1999) shareholders. Sadly for them, the share price is down 72% in that time. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 34% in the last three months.

Since Man Wah Holdings has shed HK$853m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Man Wah Holdings actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 5.7% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. Man Wah Holdings has maintained its top line over three years, so we doubt that has shareholders worried. So it might be worth looking at how revenue growth over time, in greater detail.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

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SEHK:1999 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 23rd 2024

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Man Wah Holdings in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Man Wah Holdings, it has a TSR of -68% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Man Wah Holdings shareholders are down 18% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 8.3%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 8% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Man Wah Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Man Wah Holdings .

Man Wah Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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