Analysts Have Been Trimming Their BOE Varitronix Limited (HKG:710) Price Target After Its Latest Report
Analysts Have Been Trimming Their BOE Varitronix Limited (HKG:710) Price Target After Its Latest Report
Investors in BOE Varitronix Limited (HKG:710) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.6% to close at HK$4.28 following the release of its interim results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of HK$6.2b coming in 2.9% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of HK$0.60, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
713在证券交易所的投资者有一个不错的星期,其股票上涨了4.6%,收盘价为4.28港元,这是在其中期结果发布后的结果。这是一个上佳的结果,收入是62亿港元,超出预期值2.9%,而每股收益为0.60港元,与分析师的评估一致。在此结果发布后,分析师们已经更新了他们的盈利模型,我们想知道他们是否认为公司的前景发生了重大变化,还是一切照旧。因此,我们收集了最新的盈利后各项统计数据,看看明年可能会有什么。
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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from BOE Varitronix's seven analysts is for revenues of HK$12.0b in 2024. This reflects a satisfactory 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 13% to HK$0.49 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of HK$11.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$0.66 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.
考虑到最新的结果,713的七位分析师对2024年的营收预测为120亿港元。这反映出与过去12个月相比,营收有了2.6%的满意改善。同期预计每股收益将下降13%,至0.49港元。在此盈利报告之前,分析师们曾预测2024年的营收为119亿港元,每股收益为0.66港元。分析师们似乎在最新的结果公布后变得更加看淡。尽管营收预测没有变化,但对每股收益的预测却大幅减少。
The average price target fell 7.7% to HK$7.56, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on BOE Varitronix, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$9.90 and the most bearish at HK$5.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
平均目标价格下降了7.7%,至7.56港元,降低的盈利预测显然与较低的估值估计有关。然而,还有另一种思考目标价格的方法,那就是看看分析师提出的目标价格范围,因为不同的估计范围可能意味着对企业可能走向的不同观点。对于713存在着一些不同的观点,其中最看好的分析师认为其价值为9.90港元,而最看淡的则为5.00港元/股。注意分析师目标价格的差距很大吗?这对我们来说暗示着该公司可能出现相当多的可能情况。
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the BOE Varitronix's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that BOE Varitronix's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 27% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that BOE Varitronix is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
这些预测很有趣,但在比较预测时,看看BOE Varitronix过去的业绩以及同行业的同行们会更有意义。我们要强调的是,预计BOE Varitronix的营业收入增长将放缓,到2024年底的预测年增长率为5.3%,远低于过去五年的历史27%年增长。与同行业其他公司(根据分析师预测)相比,预计年均营收增长12%。考虑到增长放缓的预测,很明显,BOE Varitronix也预计将比其他行业参与者增长更慢。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
最重要的是分析师下调了他们的每股收益预期,表明在这些结果之后情绪明显下降。好消息是,营收预期没有出现重大变化;尽管预测暗示它们将表现比整个行业差。此外,分析师还调低了他们的价格目标,表明最新消息导致人们对业务的内在价值更加悲观。
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple BOE Varitronix analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
话虽如此,公司收益的长期轨迹比明年更为重要。我们有来自多位BOE Varitronix分析师的预测,涵盖到2026年,您可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
You still need to take note of risks, for example - BOE Varitronix has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
您仍然需要注意风险,例如 - BOE Varitronix有1个警示信号,我们认为您应该知晓。
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