Things Look Grim For MGI Tech Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688114) After Today's Downgrade
Things Look Grim For MGI Tech Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688114) After Today's Downgrade
One thing we could say about the analysts on MGI Tech Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688114) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
關於華大智造有限公司(SHSE: 688114)的分析師,我們可以說一件事——他們並不樂觀,他們剛剛對該組織的短期(法定)預測進行了重大負面修正。收入和每股收益(EPS)的預測均向下修正,分析師認爲灰雲即將出現。
Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from MGI Tech's seven analysts is for revenues of CN¥2.7b in 2024, which would reflect a modest 2.4% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 38% to CN¥1.22. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CN¥3.5b and CN¥0.33 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
降級之後,華大智造的七位分析師的最新共識是,2024年的收入爲27元人民幣,這將反映出與過去12個月相比銷售額略有增長2.4%。預計每股虧損將在不久的將來大幅減少,縮小38%,至1.22元人民幣。但是,在本次估算更新之前,共識一直預計收入爲35元人民幣,每股虧損爲0.33元人民幣。因此,在最近的共識更新之後,觀點發生了很大變化,分析師大幅下調了收入預期,同時也預計每股虧損將增加。
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The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥75.48, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation.
共識目標股價基本保持不變,爲75.48元人民幣,這可能暗示着疲軟的盈利前景預計不會對估值產生長期影響。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that MGI Tech's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 4.9% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 16% a year over the past three years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 13% annually for the foreseeable future. Although MGI Tech's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.
從現在的大局來看,我們可以理解這些預測的方法之一是看看它們如何與過去的業績和行業增長預期相比較。例如,我們注意到,華大智造的增長率預計將大幅加快,預計到2024年底,收入按年計算將實現4.9%的增長。這遠高於其在過去三年中每年16%的歷史下降幅度。相比之下,分析師對整個行業的估計表明,在可預見的將來,(總計)行業收入預計每年增長13%。儘管預計華大智造的收入將有所改善,但分析師似乎仍然看跌該業務,預計該業務的增長將低於整個行業。
The Bottom Line
底線
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at MGI Tech. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that MGI Tech's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of MGI Tech.
從此次降級中需要注意的最重要一點是,共識增加了今年的預期虧損,這表明華大智造可能並非一切順利。不幸的是,分析師也下調了收入預期,行業數據表明,預計華大智造的收入增長將慢於整個市場。鑑於評級下調,目標股價沒有變化令人費解,但是,預計今年將出現嚴重下滑,如果投資者對華大智造科技保持警惕,我們也不會感到驚訝。
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple MGI Tech analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
即便如此,業務的長期發展軌跡對於股東的價值創造更爲重要。根據多位華大智造科技分析師的估計,預計將持續到2026年,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.
尋找可能達到轉折點的有趣公司的另一種方法是跟蹤管理層是買入還是賣出,我們的免費成長型公司名單由內部人士支持。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。