Nanjing Railway New Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:301016) shares have retraced a considerable 28% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. Looking at the bigger picture, even after this poor month the stock is up 27% in the last year.
Although its price has dipped substantially, Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 58x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 26x and even P/E's below 15x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
For example, consider that Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 27% decrease to the company's bottom line. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 68% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 37% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Bottom Line On Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd's P/E
Even after such a strong price drop, Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd's P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd you should be aware of, and 2 of them make us uncomfortable.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.