Maybank Raises Malaysia's GDP Growth Forecast To 5.2% After Impressive 1H
Maybank Raises Malaysia's GDP Growth Forecast To 5.2% After Impressive 1H
In its reveiw of economic development in ASEAN, Malaybank has noted that Malaysia's economic landscape continued to impress, with 2Q24 real GDP growth accelerating to 5.9% year-on-year, up from 4.2% in 1Q24, marking a strong 1H24 growth of 5.1%.
Maybank在对东盟的经济发展进行评估时,指出马来西亚的经济形势仍然令人印象深刻,2024年第二季度实际GDP增长加速至5.9%,同比增长率从1Q24的4.2%上升,标志着强劲的上半年增长达到了5.1%。
This uptick Maybank said prompts an upgrade in GDP growth forecasts for 2024 to 5.2% from the previous 4.7%, with expectations for 2025 remaining at 5.1%. The improved outlook is underpinned by robust investment and construction activities, buoyed by ongoing infrastructure projects such as the East Coast Rail Link and the Pan Borneo Highway. The consumer sector also benefits from a proposed 15% salary increase for civil servants, expected to drive higher consumer spending. Notable changes in stock ratings include an upgrade for YTL Power to BUY, reflecting easing concerns over earnings and Wessex's return to profitability. Conversely, Frontken's earnings disappointment results in a downgrade to HOLD. ITMAX receives an upgrade as well, following contract wins for smart city projects, including a MYR540 million deal for additional CCTV installations.
Maybank表示,这一上升势头推动了2024年GDP增长预测率从之前的4.7%升至5.2%,预计2025年将保持在5.1%的水平。这一改善的前景得益于投资和施工活动的强劲推动,受到东海岸铁路和巴基尼奥公路等进行中的基础设施项目的支撑。消费者部门也受益于计划加薪15%的公务员预期,预计将推动消费者支出增加。股票评级方面的明显变化包括将YTL Power的评级升级为买入,反映了对盈利的担忧减轻和Wessex公司盈利能力恢复的预期。相反,Frontken的盈利失望导致评级降级为持有。ITMAX也得到了升级,因为该公司赢得了智慧城市项目的合同,包括额外的闭路电视安装交易54000万马币。
As for other parts of the region, Singapore's 2Q24 GDP growth, while slightly slower than 1Q, is expected to strengthen in the latter half of the year, supported by a surge in July non-oil domestic exports, indicating a rebound in global electronics demand. The equity market's focus is on selective stocks in sectors like Gaming, Industrials, and Internet. AEM and FEH face downgrades to SELL and HOLD respectively, due to weak results and margin pressures, while SEA's target price is raised following strong 2Q performance. PROP is also downgraded due to falling private home sales.
至于该地区的其他地方,新加坡的2024年第二季度GDP增长虽然略慢于第一季度,但预计在年底时会有所加强,受到七月非石油国内出口激增的支撑,表明了全球电子产品需求的复苏。股票市场关注的焦点是游戏、工业和互联网等行业的选择性股票。昂发和顺丰站面临售卖和持有的降级,由于业绩疲软和毛利率压力,随着第二季度表现强劲,SEA的目标价上调。酋长道也因私人住宅销售下滑而被降级。
Indonesia's fiscal outlook is solid, with a credible 2025 GDP growth target of 5.2% and a fiscal deficit target of 2.5%. However, the Rupiah's rally may face challenges, and domestic political tensions could impact sentiment. Despite recent strong market rallies, a cautious approach is recommended, especially with potential profit-taking. Commodity stocks, particularly nickel mining operators, are suggested for accumulation. The consumer sector faces regulatory risks from proposed sugar taxes, while MTEL and MAPI remain top picks for their growth potential in mobile networks and retail.
印度尼西亚的财政前景良好,2025年GDP增长目标为5.2%,财政赤字目标为2.5%。然而,印尼盾的升值可能面临挑战,国内政治紧张局势可能影响市场情绪。尽管最近市场出现强劲的反弹,但建议采取谨慎态度,尤其是在可能出现获利了结的情况下。建议积累大宗商品股票,特别是镍矿企业。消费者部门面临来自拟议糖税的监管风险,而MTEL和MAPI因其在移动网络和零售领域的增长潜力而保持首选。
Thailand's SET Index is poised for recovery following the removal of political uncertainties with Paetongtarn Shinawatra's appointment as Prime Minister. Economic growth is anticipated to strengthen from 3Q24 onwards, with a significant portion of the FY24 budget already disbursed. The 2Q24 GDP growth of 2.3% year-on-year reflects improvements in tourism and public spending. The Bank of Thailand's decision to maintain policy rates supports economic stability. Upgrades in tourism stocks are highlighted due to attractive valuations, while SAWAD is upgraded to BUY based on its improving loan growth strategy. SAT and CPNREIT face downgrades due to disappointing earnings and limited upside, respectively.
泰国的SET指数有望在帕通塔恩·西那瓦拉任命为总理后实现复苏。从24年第三季度开始,经济增长预计将加强,已经发放了大部分24财年预算。24年第二季度GDP同比增长2.3%,反映出旅游业和公共支出的改善。泰国银行决定保持政策利率,支持经济稳定。由于具有吸引力的估值,旅游股的评级上调,而SAWAD基于其不断改善的贷款增长策略被升级为买入。由于盈利令人失望和上行空间有限,SAt和CPNREIt的评级遭到下调。
The Philippines sees a notable increase in the PSEi, driven by strong GDP growth of 6.3% in 2Q24, buoyed by domestic demand and public consumption. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cuts its policy rate, signalling potential further reductions. The corporate earnings season has been favourable, prompting adjustments in the "Magic 8" picks, with CNPF upgraded to BUY due to strong earnings momentum and a positive outlook.
菲律宾PSEi指数增长显著,得益于2Q24的强劲GDP增长,受国内需求和公共消费的推动。菲律宾央行降低政策利率,标志着可能进一步降息。企业盈利季节有利,促使“Magic 8”选择进行调整,CNPF因盈利势头强劲和积极前景而被提升至买入。
Vietnam's economic recovery is supported by easing FX pressures and strong 2Q24 corporate earnings growth. The VN-Index's recent gains may lead to profit-taking, but long-term prospects remain positive, with expectations for an upgrade to emerging market status in 2025. Key stock picks include banks, consumers, and tech stocks, reflecting optimism about Vietnam's market and economic trajectory.
越南的经济复苏得到外汇压力缓解和24年第二季度企业盈利增长的支持。VN指数最近的涨势可能导致获利了结,但长期前景仍然积极,预计将于2025年升级为新兴市场地位。重要的股票选择包括银行、消费者和科技股,反映了对越南市场和经济前景的乐观态度。
Source: Maybank
Title: ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY
资料来源:马来亚银行
标题:东盟+ 双周简报