Bank of America Securities lowered its earnings forecast for Sinotruk (03808) by 2% and 6% for this year and next year, and 14% per share earnings forecast for 2026.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Bank of America Securities released a research report stating that it lowered the earnings forecast for Sinotruk (03808) by 2% and 6% for this year and next year, and 14% per share earnings forecast for 2026 to reflect lower sales and gross margin assumptions. The target price dropped from HK$23.7 to HK$22.2. The bank believes that the current price of the stock is reasonable and fully reflects growth prospects, but it still favors the company's long-term export expansion and strong local market positioning, and maintains Sinotruk's “neutral” rating.
The bank pointed out that Sinotruk estimates that China will sell 0.95 million heavy trucks this year, and 1.05 million heavy trucks each next year and 2026. Recent subsidies for national three emission standard heavy trucks should help the local market update demand. Currently, China is operating about 0.3 million heavy trucks with national three emission standards. Starting next year, China will begin phasing out the national four emission standard heavy trucks, which will further support local heavy truck sales. This year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in heavy trucks and light trucks will reach 10% and 15%. The bank believes that Sinotruk is already seizing growth opportunities through new product preparations.
On the other hand, the bank indicates that management expects China to export 0.3 million vehicles this year, and the company's target is 0.14 million vehicles this year, up from 0.13 million vehicles last year. In the light truck market, the company expects year-on-year sales growth in the second half of the year, benefiting from a recovery in consumer demand in China and an increase in food delivery services.