APEC Growth Projected At 3.5% Despite Ongoing Challenges
APEC Growth Projected At 3.5% Despite Ongoing Challenges
The APEC region is projected to maintain stable economic growth at 3.5 percent, showcasing resilience in the face of uncertainty and ongoing challenges.
预计亚太经合组织地区将保持3.5％的稳定经济增长，展现出面对不确定性和持续挑战时的韧性。
According to the August update of the APEC Regional Trends Analysis, the region's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2024, consistent with the growth rate observed in 2023.
根据8月份更新的《亚太经合组织区域趋势分析》，该地区的国内生产总值（GDP）预计将在2024年增长3.5％，与2023年观察到的增长率一致。
However, a slight deceleration is anticipated for 2025, with growth expected to ease to 3.1 percent, marking an improvement from earlier projections in May of 2.9 percent, as noted in a release issued by the APEC Policy Support Unit received here on Monday.
但是，正如周一在这里收到的亚太经合组织政策支持小组发布的一份新闻稿中指出的那样，预计2025年将略有减速，增长预计将放缓至3.1％，这与5月份早些时候预测的2.9％相比有所改善。
Director of the APEC Policy Support Unit Carlos Kuriyama stated that the collective commitment to controlling inflation and adopting prudent monetary policies has been pivotal while growth rates may vary across the region.
亚太经合组织政策支持部门董事卡洛斯·库里山表示，控制通货膨胀和采取谨慎货币政策的集体承诺至关重要，而该地区的增长率可能有所不同。
"As we move forward, it is crucial that we remain vigilant and flexible, ensuring that our economies can weather future challenges and continue on a path of sustainable development," he said.
他说：“在我们向前迈进的过程中，保持警惕和灵活性至关重要，确保我们的经济能够应对未来的挑战，继续走可持续发展之路。”
APEC economies have seen significant success in moderating inflation, with the average inflation rate declining to 2.8 percent in June 2024, down from 5.9 percent in January 2023.
亚太经合组织经济体在缓和通货膨胀方面取得了巨大成功，平均通货膨胀率从2023年1月的5.9％降至2024年6月的2.8％。
This reduction underscores the effectiveness of the monetary policies implemented across the region.
这种减少凸显了该地区实施的货币政策的有效性。
"Central banks in APEC have mostly maintained a cautious approach, avoiding premature rate reductions that could trigger capital flight and currency depreciation," according to Rhea C. Hernando, an analyst with the Policy Support Unit.
政策支持部门分析师雷亚·埃尔南多表示：“亚太经合组织的中央银行大多保持谨慎态度，避免过早降息，以免引发资本外逃和货币贬值。”
"As a result, APEC has seen the appreciation or slowing depreciation of 20 currencies against the US dollar in recent months," Hernando added.
埃尔南多补充说：“结果，最近几个月，亚太经合组织看到了20种货币兑美元的升值或贬值放缓。”
Trade performance within the APEC region expanded, with merchandise exports in the first quarter of 2024 growing by 3.9 percent in volume and 1.6 percent in value as compared to the same period in 2023. This trend aligns with the anticipated global trade volume rebound of 3.1 percent in 2024.
亚太经合组织地区的贸易表现扩大，与2023年同期相比，2024年第一季度的商品出口量增长了3.9％，价值增长了1.6％。这一趋势与预期的2024年全球贸易量反弹3.1％一致。
"Additionally, domestic consumption has shown resilience, further bolstering economic optimism across the region," a researcher with the Policy Support Unit, Glacer Niño A. Vasquez, said.
政策支持部门研究员格拉瑟·尼诺·巴斯克斯说：“此外，国内消费表现出弹性，进一步提振了整个地区的经济乐观情绪。”
He noted that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index across APEC economies remained steady, reflecting favorable manufacturing activity.
他指出，亚太经合组织经济体的制造业采购经理人指数保持稳定，反映了良好的制造业活动。
The report highlights that the region is currently grappling with increased trade tensions, which have led to a notable rise in trade restrictions and remedies, such as anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
该报告强调，该地区目前正在努力应对日益加剧的贸易紧张局势，这导致反倾销和反补贴税等贸易限制和补救措施显著增加。
Persistent supply chain disruptions have also increased the cost and time of transporting goods across the border, putting additional pressure on prices.
持续的供应链中断也增加了跨境运输货物的成本和时间，给价格带来了额外的压力。
Strategic economic policies and international cooperation are expected to play a crucial role in navigating these issues.
战略经济政策和国际合作有望在解决这些问题中发挥关键作用。
APEC economies are encouraged to adjust monetary policy carefully, rebuild fiscal buffers, and explore policy alternatives that enhance trade relations without restricting trade and investment.
鼓励亚太经合组织经济体谨慎调整货币政策，重建财政缓冲区，并探索在不限制贸易和投资的情况下加强贸易关系的政策选择。
"The steady growth we are witnessing across the APEC region, despite global uncertainties, is a testament to the resilience and adaptability of our economies," Kuriyama stated.
栗山说：“尽管全球存在不确定性，但我们在亚太经合组织地区目睹的稳步增长证明了我们经济的弹性和适应性。”
"As we continue to navigate complex challenges, APEC's commitment to sound economic policies and regional cooperation will be critical in sustaining this momentum and fostering long-term prosperity," he said.
他说：“随着我们继续应对复杂的挑战，亚太经合组织对健全的经济政策和区域合作的承诺对于维持这一势头和促进长期繁荣至关重要。”