Stock Market To See 'Choppy, Erratic, Volatile Moves' In Short Term, Warns Expert, As Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cuts
Stock Market To See 'Choppy, Erratic, Volatile Moves' In Short Term, Warns Expert, As Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cuts
However, if the Fed's message indicates concern about the economy, the excitement about the cutting cycle may need to be reassessed. Historically, stocks have performed better when rate cuts occur against a backdrop of resilient growth rather than during a sharp economic downturn.The U.S. stock market is preparing for a period of volatility as the Federal Reserve signals an imminent reduction in interest rates. Investors are keenly watching upcoming economic data to gauge the feasibility of the "soft landing" scenario that has supported U.S. stocks throughout the year.
随着美联储暗示即将降息，美国股市正准备迎接一段波动时期。投资者正在密切关注即将公布的经济数据，以评估支撑美国股市整年表现的“软着陆”情景的可行性。
What Happened: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced last Friday that it's time to start lowering interest rates. The rate-cutting process is likely to begin next month with a 25 basis-point cut at the Fed's monetary policy meeting on Sep. 17-18.
事件回顾：美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周五宣布，现在是时候开始降息了。降息行动可能会在下个月开始，美联储在9月17-18日的货币政策会议上可能会进行25个基点的降息。
Despite the S&P 500 gaining 18% this year, market participants are seeking continued evidence of the economy's smooth transition to a soft landing, where growth remains strong while inflation cools, Reuters reported on Monday.
尽管标普500指数今年上涨了18%，市场参与者仍在寻求经济平稳过渡至软着陆的持续证据，即经济保持强劲增长的同时通胀逐渐降温。据路透社周一报道。
However, if the Fed's message indicates concern about the economy, the excitement about the cutting cycle may need to be reassessed. Historically, stocks have performed better when rate cuts occur against a backdrop of resilient growth rather than during a sharp economic downturn.
然而，如果美联储的讯息表明对经济存在担忧，那么对降息周期的兴奋情绪可能需要重新评估。历史数据显示，在经济增长强劲时进行利率下调，股票的表现要好于在经济急剧下滑时进行利率下调。
Andre Bakhos, managing member at Ingenium Analytics LLC, said, "The longer-term trends in stocks are rock-solid and any weakness is an opportunity to add exposure." However, he warned of potential short-term volatility, stating, "we're going to get ... choppy, erratic, volatile moves because no one really knows what happens now that he (Powell) has shown his hand."
Ingenium Analytics 司的董事总经理安德烈·巴科斯表示，“股票的长期趋势非常稳固，任何疲软都是增加风险暴露的机会。” 但他对潜在的短期波动提出警告，称“我们可能会见到...混乱、不稳定、波动的走势，因为没有人真正知道现在他（鲍威尔）已经掀开了面纱之后会发生什么。”
Why It Matters: The Federal Reserve's shift from a hawkish tone to signaling a rate cut has been prompted by a string of weak data and continued improvement in pricing pressure. However, historical data suggests that the market may not fare well in the months following a rate cut.
为什么重要：美联储从鹰派口吻转向降息的转变是受到一系列疲软数据和价格压力持续改善的推动。然而，历史数据表明，在降息后的几个月里，市场可能表现不佳。
Furthermore, Drew Matus, MetLife Investment Management's chief market strategist, has urged Powell to separate the Fed's actions from the stock market. He argued that the Fed's decisions should not be influenced by the unemployment rate exceeding 4%, or by the easing of financial conditions.
此外，美国大都会人寿投资管理的首席市场策略师德鲁·马图斯敦促鲍威尔将美联储的举措与股市分开。他认为，美联储的决定不应受失业率超过4%或金融条件放缓的影响。
Price Action: On Monday, at the time of writing, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was trading 0.17% higher while Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) was down by 0.26%, according to Benzinga Pro.
价格走势：周一，在撰写时，标普500ETF信托（NYSE:SPY）上涨了0.17%，而纳斯达克100ETF（NASDAQ:QQQ）下跌了0.26%，据彭博专业版报道。
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Image via Shutterstock
图片来自shutterstock。
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
本报道使用Benzinga Neuro生成，并由Pooja Rajkumari编辑