According to the latest energy outlook, Exxon Mobil, the American oil and gas giant (XOM.US), expects global crude oil demand to remain above 0.1 billion barrels per day until 2050, similar to today's demand level. This forecast is 25% higher than the already optimistic oil forecast of its biggest competitor in the European market, BP plc (BP.US).

This largest US oil and gas company's stronger demand forecast in its latest global crude oil outlook fully supports Exxon Mobil's oil and gas production capacity growth plan, which is the most ambitious plan among the Western world oil giants. It is worth noting that in the previous outlook released in 2023, the company did not disclose the crude oil demand figure for 2050.

The company's expectations for global carbon reduction are also more pessimistic than BP plc. According to BP plc, technological advances will make substantial emission reductions possible after 2029, compared to the mid-decade (around 2025).

Exxon Mobil plans to produce up to 4.3 million barrels of oil and gas per day this year, which is 30% higher than the current oil and gas production plan of its biggest competitor in the US market, Chevron Corporation (CVX.US). BP plc plans to reduce its daily production to around 2 million barrels by 2030.

Chris Bessell, Exxon Mobil's Director of Economics, Energy and Strategy Planning, said, 'The demand for oil and gas has a very, very long runway and will continue to grow over the next few years.'

Exxon Mobil boldly predicts in its outlook that electric vehicles will not significantly change global long-term oil demand because the world's population is projected to increase from today's 8 billion to nearly 10 billion by 2050, thereby substantially increasing the demand for traditional energy sources.

This report also shows that if every new car sold globally in 2035 is an electric vehicle, the demand for crude oil is expected to be around 85 million barrels per day, which is roughly the same as in 2010. BP plc previously projected that oil consumption would peak in 2025 and decline to around 75 million barrels per day by 2050.

Exxon Mobil's latest estimate is more than three times the 2035 crude oil demand (24 million barrels) predicted by the International Energy Agency (IEA), and IEA says this projection would achieve net-zero emissions globally by 2050.

Exxon Mobil also predicts that by 2050, crude oil, natural gas, and coal will provide 67% of the global energy mix, slightly lower than last year's estimate of around 68%.

The company states that as the world transitions to unconventional resources, investments in crude oil will need to be larger than currently expected. The report notes that production capacity in these geological formations, such as shale wells in the United States, has a shorter lifespan and exhibits more noticeable natural depletion of resources.

Exxon Mobil predicts that without new investments, production will decline at a rate of approximately 15% per year, which is higher than the approximately 8% per year estimated by the International Energy Agency in 2018. Exxon Mobil's expected decline is even greater.

According to Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon Mobil, this decline in production could lead to a five-fold increase in oil prices, and global crude oil supply could potentially plummet to 30 million barrels per day as early as 2030.

Woods explains, "Without ongoing investment, global supply of crude oil and natural gas will virtually disappear in the future." "The biggest driver of change is the shift to shorter-cycle unconventional energy assets."