MayAir Technology (China) Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688376) announced strong profits, but the stock was stagnant. Our analysis suggests that shareholders have noticed something concerning in the numbers.
Zooming In On MayAir Technology (China)'s Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
MayAir Technology (China) has an accrual ratio of 0.46 for the year to June 2024. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥365m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥189.1m. We also note that MayAir Technology (China)'s free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥365m.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On MayAir Technology (China)'s Profit Performance
As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that MayAir Technology (China) didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. As a result, we think it may well be the case that MayAir Technology (China)'s underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. Nonetheless, it's still worth noting that its earnings per share have grown at 49% over the last three years. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for MayAir Technology (China) (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of MayAir Technology (China)'s profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.