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Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's (SZSE:301533) Anemic Earnings Might Be Worse Than You Think

Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's (SZSE:301533) Anemic Earnings Might Be Worse Than You Think

威玛农机股份有限公司(SZSE:301533)的盈利疲软可能比你想象的更糟糕
Simply Wall St ·  08/26 19:06

The market wasn't impressed with the soft earnings from Weima Agricultural Machinery Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:301533) recently. We did some further digging and think they have a few more reasons to be concerned beyond the statutory profit.

最近大众农机股份有限公司 (SZSE:301533) 的业绩不佳并没有给市场留下深刻印象。我们进行了更深入的调查,发现他们还有更多的问题需要担心,不仅仅是法人利润。

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SZSE:301533 Earnings and Revenue History August 26th 2024
SZSE:301533的收益和营业收入历史情况于2024年8月26日

A Closer Look At Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's Earnings

对大众农机股份有限公司的收益进行更详细的分析

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

用于衡量公司如何将其利润转换为自由现金流(FCF)的一个重要的财务比率是应计比率。为了获得应计比率,我们首先从一段时间的利润中减去FCF,然后将该数字除以该期间的平均营运资产。该比率向我们展示了公司的利润超过自由现金流的程度。

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

因此,负的应计比率对公司来说是积极的,而正的应计比率则是消极的。虽然应计比率高于零并不值得担心,但当公司有相对较高的应计比率时,我们认为这值得注意。引用Lewellen和Resutek 2014年的一篇论文:“应计比率较高的公司未来往往利润较低”。

For the year to June 2024, Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd had an accrual ratio of 0.35. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, raising questions about how useful that profit figure really is. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥658k during the period, falling well short of its reported profit of CN¥74.0m. Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. The good news for shareholders is that Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

对于2024年截至6月的一年来说,大众农机股份有限公司的应计比率为0.35。因此,我们知道其自由现金流远远低于其法人利润,这引发了关于利润数据的实际有效性的疑问。事实上,在这段时间内,它的自由现金流为65.8万人民币,远远低于其报告的利润7400万人民币。大众农机股份有限公司的股东无疑希望它的自由现金流在明年回升,因为在过去12个月里它一直在下降。然而,还有其他需要考虑的因素。应计比率在一定程度上反映了非常规项目对法人利润的影响。对股东来说,好消息是大众农机股份有限公司的应计比率去年要好得多,所以今年的差劲数据可能只是利润和自由现金流之间短期不匹配的情况。如果确实如此,股东应该期待今年现金流相对于利润的改善。

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd.

注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表的强度。点击这里查看我们对维马农机股份有限公司资产负债表分析。

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

非常规项目如何影响利润?

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥7.9m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).

考虑到计提比率,不难理解维马农机股份有限公司过去十二个月的利润被价值790万人民币的非常规项目提振。我们不能否认,更高的利润通常让我们对公司持乐观态度,但我们更希望利润能够可持续。当我们分析了全球绝大多数上市公司时,我们发现非常规项目往往不会重复出现。毕竟,这正是会计术语所暗示的。假设这些非常规项目在今年不会再次出现,那么我们预计利润在明年可能会较弱(在没有业务增长的情况下)。

Our Take On Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's Profit Performance

我们对维马农机股份有限公司的利润表现的观点

Summing up, Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. If you want to do dive deeper into Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. For example, Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

总结一下,维马农机股份有限公司从非常规项目中获得了利润的良好提升,但无法用自由现金流匹配其账面利润。考虑到这一切,我们认为维马农机股份有限公司的利润可能给出了一个过于慷慨的可持续盈利水平的印象。如果您想更深入地了解维马农机股份有限公司,您还应该了解它当前面临的风险。例如,维马农机股份有限公司有2个警告信号(其中1个可能很严重),我们认为您应该知道。

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

在本文章中,我们研究了几个可能影响利润数据实用性的因素,我们对此持谨慎态度。但是,如果您能够将精力集中在细节上,就一定会发现更多。例如,许多人认为高股本回报是良好企业经济的指标,而其他人则喜欢"跟随资金"并寻找内部人员在购买的股票。因此,您可能希望查看这个高股本回报的免费收藏,或此具有高内部所有权的股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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