According to the research report released by Guolian Securities, from the perspective of nuclear power investment and operation, the global new commercial operation unit scale in 2021-2023 is 8.3/6.2/7.6 GW. In terms of newly commissioned regions, the main focus is in Asia and Europe. The clean, efficient, stable, and relatively controllable attributes of nuclear power have gained attention, and global nuclear power construction is accelerating. On August 19th, the State Council approved the operation of 11 units, continuing the large-scale approval of nuclear power in China. The increase in newly commissioned units in the nuclear power industry has boosted the prosperity of both domestic and foreign markets, and the release of equipment orders is expected to drive performance improvement. In terms of operators, the increase in new nuclear power units has driven the increase in operator's profits. After the expiration of nuclear power units, through demonstration, safety design, etc., the service life of the units can be extended, reducing depreciation costs, and profits are expected to improve.

Guolian Securities' main points are as follows:

Global nuclear power policies are proactive, and the scale of nuclear power commercial operation is increasing.

On the one hand, global energy is transitioning to clean energy, and on the other hand, international energy market prices are fluctuating. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the international energy landscape has changed, with high prices for fossil fuels such as natural gas and coal. Nuclear power, with its attributes of "clean, efficient, stable, and relatively controllable," has become the "solution" for reshaping the energy supply systems of various countries. Taking into account the impact of unit shutdowns and suspensions, as of the end of 2023, the global number of operating nuclear power units is 413, with a net capacity of approximately 371.5 GW. From the perspective of nuclear power investment and operation, the global new commercial operation unit scale in 2021-2023 is 8.3/6.2/7.6 GW. In terms of newly commissioned regions, the main focus is in Asia and Europe.

Splitting the types of global nuclear power units, pressurized water reactors (PWR) are dominant.

From the perspective of operating units, according to incomplete statistics, there are currently 415 global operating nuclear power unit projects, 308 of which use PWR technology, accounting for 74.22%. The number of units using PHWR and BWR reactors is 47/39, accounting for 11.33%/9.4% respectively. From the perspective of under construction units, according to incomplete statistics, there are a total of 64 units under construction globally, of which 56 are PWR units, accounting for 87.5%. In terms of region, there are fewer units under construction in South America and Africa, all of which use PWR technology. Among the 48 units under construction in Asia, 41 of them use PWR technology.

The pace of global nuclear power construction is accelerating, and nuclear power has entered a period of scale growth.

From the perspective of the scale of new construction, the scale of new units started globally in 2021/2022/2023 is 9.72/9.85/8.61 GW, with growth rates of 47.75%/1.33%/-12.55%. Looking at different regions, the region with the highest contribution to the scale of new construction is mainly Asia. In terms of the number of new units started, from 2021 to 2023, the number of new units started globally is 10/8/7. According to the IAEA's forecast, the projected net installed capacity of global nuclear power in 2030 is 0.403/0.462 billion kilowatts, accounting for 4%/4.6% of the global power generation capacity, with a power generation of 0.3143/0.3601 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 9.4%/10.8% of the total global power generation.

Taking the United States as an example, the profitability of nuclear power in the later stages of operation has improved significantly.

The operating life of a nuclear power plant mainly depends on the lifespan of the pressure vessel and containment. According to statistics from Guolian Securities, the cumulative capacity of extended life nuclear units in the United States has steadily increased. As of 2019, the cumulative capacity of extended life nuclear units in the United States is 75.53 GW. When a nuclear power plant reaches its design service life or the operating license period, it can continue to operate by applying for a license extension through the nuclear safety regulatory department. In countries such as the United States, a considerable number of nuclear power units have extended their lifespan to 60 years using life extension methods, resulting in reduced depreciation and increased operating profits.

Investment recommendation: Pay attention to opportunities for nuclear power equipment manufacturers and operators.

In terms of nuclear power equipment manufacturers, the clean, efficient, stable, and relatively controllable properties of nuclear power are receiving attention. Global nuclear power construction is accelerating, and the approval of 11 units by the State Council in August indicates a continued high level of approval scale. Both domestic and international markets have confirmed the improvement in the prosperity of the nuclear power industry. Equipment manufacturers' orders are expected to gradually be released, driving performance improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to Dongfang Electric (600875.SH), Jiangsu Shentong (002438.SZ), and others. As for operators, the increase in new nuclear units is expected to boost operator profits. After the expiration of nuclear power units, extending their lifespan through evaluation and safety design can reduce depreciation costs and increase profits. It is recommended to pay attention to China National Nuclear Power (601985.SH), CGN Power Co., Ltd. (003816.SZ), and others.

Risk warning: Nuclear power approval progress is slower than expected; Nuclear power construction progress is slower than expected; Nuclear power safety accident risk.