According to the Zhitong Finance APP, since early July, oil futures prices have fallen more than 10% from the level of nearly $90 per barrel, mainly due to expectations of increased supply in the Americas region exceeding summer demand in the United States, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also impacted the market.

For most of this year, oil prices have fluctuated within the range of $75 to $90 per barrel. Currently, the trend of oil prices will be heavily influenced by the OPEC+ group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. It is understood that the OPEC+ group will face a crucial decision in the coming weeks: whether to continue the production increase plan that started in October or to postpone it in the face of uncertain economic prospects. The complexity of this decision lies in the recent decline in Brent crude futures prices, the spread, and refinery profit margins, all of which reflect market concerns about the outlook for oil consumption and the risks that misjudgment may bring.

Wall Street is concerned about the outlook for crude oil next year, with both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lowering their price forecasts due to increased global supply, including potential supply from OPEC+. These two banks currently project that by 2025, the average price of benchmark Brent crude oil globally will be below $80 per barrel. Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast down to $77 per barrel, while Morgan Stanley expects future prices to be in the range of $75 to $78 per barrel. Both banks anticipate an oversupply in the crude oil market and predict a downward trend in prices over the next 12 months.

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven pointed out in a report that the decision by OPEC+ to rescind voluntary production cuts may mean that the organization's goal is to strategically constrain the supply of non-OPEC countries. At the same time, he warned that crude oil prices may be lower than his revised forecast under various circumstances.

In recent months, oil prices have been falling, erasing all the gains so far this year. Investors are concerned about slowing demand growth in China, the largest importer, increasing supply outside of OPEC+, and the organization's plans to relax existing production limits. Although OPEC+ is willing to support oil prices by reducing production and sacrificing market share, the initial plan to restore production levels may change this stance.

Morgan Stanley analysts Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins stated in a report, "The crude oil market is still in a state of shortage, but supply may remain tight for some time." They predict that supply balance may be restored by the fourth quarter of 2024, and they expect a surplus to emerge in 2025.

Citigroup, which has a long-term bearish view, believes that if OPEC+ continues to increase production, it may bring about a "bearish surprise," and the group predicts that crude oil prices will fall to $55 per barrel next year. DNB Bank ASA also warned that if the alliance sticks to its plan, oil prices could drop to $60 per barrel.

It is reported that earlier this summer, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners devised a temporary (reversible) plan to restore the suspended production output of 543,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, while gradually bringing back idle supplies since the end of 2022. However, since then, the demand outlook has become bleak.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that even if OPEC+ cancels its planned production increase, the global market will soften next quarter as rapid inventory depletion currently underway comes to a halt. The agency forecasts that the situation will be even more unstable next year, with an oil surplus of over 1 million barrels per day in the first quarter, even if OPEC+ keeps the production increase valve closed.

Christoph Ruhl, Senior Analyst at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, said, "Negative expectations of oversupply exist. Demand has stabilized at low levels while supply is booming globally. Ending the production cuts by OPEC+ would have a negative impact on prices."

Spencer Dale, Chief Economist of BP plc, said, "Non-OPEC country oil supply growth will largely meet the overall growth in demand. This means that there may be relatively limited room for OPEC to restore production capacity."

Some question how much further prices can fall, as speculators have already built up a large number of put options, and conflicts in the Middle East, which account for about one-third of the world's supply, continue. Earlier this month, speculators' net bets on price increases were at their lowest level since Intercontinental Exchange began publishing data in 2011. In this situation, a bullish surprise could have a significant positive impact on prices.

Brent crude is currently trading at around $81 per barrel, while the average price this year is around $83. According to Goldman Sachs' analysis, if China's oil demand remains stable, Brent crude prices could fall to $60 per barrel. Additionally, if the United States imposes a 10% tariff on imported commodities, crude oil prices could further drop to $63 per barrel. Furthermore, assuming that OPEC fully lifts its additional production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day before September 2025, Brent crude prices could also fall to $61 per barrel.