“Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily”, August 27 (Reporters Yu Jiaxin and Qiu Siyu) The two leading silicon wafers reported price increases on the same day.

According to reports, Longji Green Energy adjusted the price of silicon wafers. Among them, the price of N-G10L was 1.15 yuan/piece, the price of N-G12R was 1.3 yuan/piece, and the new price increased by an average of 5 minutes/piece.

Today (August 27), the “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” reporter called the Longji Green Energy Securities Office as an investor. The relevant staff said, “Previously, the price of silicon wafers fell below cash costs. For the long-term healthy development of the market, the company adjusted silicon wafer quotes.”

On the same day, TCL Zhonghuan also announced a silicon wafer price increase. The adjusted price for G10N is 1.15 yuan/piece, G12RN is 1.3 yuan/piece, and G12N is 1.5 yuan/piece. In response to the “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” reporter, TCL Central said, “The situation is true. The company believes that price adjustments are beneficial to the overall development of the industry, and hopes that the photovoltaic industry will get out of the current low price competition situation.”

As of press release, the price adjustments of the two parties mentioned above have not been announced on official channels. The price of silicon wafers on Longji Green Energy's official website remained at December 26, 2023, and TCL Central remained at September 26, 2023.

Regarding the price adjustment news, Lu Biao, co-secretary general of the SEMI China Photovoltaic Standards Committee, said in an interview with the “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” reporter that the price of silicon wafers has returned to a reasonable value. After the previous price fell to cash costs, leading companies reduced supply by reducing the load, thus stopping the price decline. “TCL Zhonghuan has always followed Longji Green Energy, but this time it maintained a high load at a low price, and TCL Zhonghuan lost even more than Longji Green Energy.”

What are the trends of manufacturers in various parts of the industrial chain

After the two leaders adjusted the price of silicon wafers, will other manufacturers follow suit? Can the profitability of silicon, battery, and component manufacturers be repaired?

Today (August 27), the relevant staff of silicon manufacturer Daquan Energy told the “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” reporter: “Prices mainly depend on the company's situation and production schedule. The direct impact (silicon wafer price increase) has not been seen yet, and we will have to analyze it again later.”

Tongwei Co., Ltd. indicated that production capacity is being cleared and that the photovoltaic industry is improving. “Currently, product prices in the entire industry are below the cost price. Lowering the load will theoretically cause prices to rebound, but depending on the extent of the reduction and the specific situation of demand, the current supply and demand situation has not improved significantly.”

However, as to whether to raise the price of the company's products, the relevant staff of Tongwei Co., Ltd. said that if the company enters the market with it, Longji Green Energy's price may not necessarily reflect the current situation.

King Kong PV said to “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily”: “The company mainly purchases silicon wafers from TCL Zhonghuan. If the price of silicon wafers rises in the future, the price of the company's batteries will rise accordingly. Currently, the company's capacity utilization rate is low, and the industry as a whole (capacity utilization rate) is low.”

“If the price is lower than the cost, it is also necessary to maintain production. If production is cut or discontinued, equipment infrastructure, labor costs, etc. will be more expensive, and losses will be greater.” Regarding the price trend, the staff member added, “Future price trends are not easy to evaluate; it is impossible to judge from just one price adjustment. The PV industry is developing and changing too fast.”

There may also be a phenomenon where production capacity is being reworked, and silicon materials and components have steadily stopped falling

Judging from the overall trend in the photovoltaic industry, Lu Biao, co-secretary general of the SEMI China Photovoltaic Standards Committee, analyzed to the “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” reporter, “In the future, all companies should reduce their load by the same ratio. In particular, leading companies should play a regulatory role. Leading companies that lose a lot of money when competing against price pressure are high-load leading companies. In a situation where there is excess high-quality production capacity in all areas, leading companies can force their peers to stop competing at low prices, but it is difficult to clear production capacity.”

However, Lu Binping also further stated that after prices are rebounded by lowering the load and reducing supply, there will be a phenomenon of reworking production capacity, limiting further price recovery.

Since 2023, the photovoltaic industry has faced unprecedented challenges. The profitability of products in all parts of the industrial chain continues to be under pressure, and the performance of PV manufacturers has generally declined. Longji Green Energy expects a net loss of 4.8 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year; TCL Central lost more than 3 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a gross margin of -9.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 34.13 percentage points.

Currently, in addition to seeing the “dawn” on the silicon wafer side, Lu Biao also revealed that there are signs of adjustment on the silicon side as well.

According to the quote of TrendForce Jibang Consulting New Energy Research Center on August 21, 2024, the price of single crystal compound feed is 34 yuan/kg, the latest price of single crystal dense material is 32 yuan/kg, and the price of N-type material is 38 yuan/kg. Compared with the price of the previous week, the decline has steadily stopped.

In other areas, prices for M10 monocrystalline PERC cells, G12 monocrystalline PERC cells, and G12 monocrystalline TopCon cells all stopped falling, prices for M10 monocrystalline TopCon cells fell by 3.51%, and G12R monocrystalline TopCon cells fell by 3.45%; modules and photovoltaic glass all stopped falling.

Zhu Yue, an analyst at CITIC Construction Investment, believes that currently, the PV sector is at the bottom of fundamentals and profits, but positive marginal changes are taking place recently. On the one hand, domestic projects began to be delivered in August. It is expected that component production schedules will continue to rise in September-November, and there will be a marginal improvement on the demand side of the industry; on the other hand, the profit bottom of the industrial chain is becoming more clear, and the supply-side of the industry is improving at an accelerated pace.

Looking at the demand side, Guosheng Securities analyst Yang Runsi said that the government has introduced a number of policies to support photovoltaic power generation and solve consumption problems. In addition, procurement tenders are hot, and public tenders for photovoltaic modules exceeded 172 GW in the first half of 2024, an increase of 40% over the same period last year. The bidding situation is expected to reach a new high in the second half of the year, and the installed capacity potential brought by the scenic base is expected to start a new PV demand cycle.