Last Friday, just hours before the global central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$  had been hovering around $61,000. However, the cryptocurrency market saw a strong rebound with Powell's' dovish' tone.

Bitcoin once surged above the $65,000 mark but fell back to around $59,100 this week. However, cryptocurrencies recorded a cumulative increase of 7.62% last week, the largest since mid-July.

With Powell clearly signaling a rate cut, investors are wondering when the consolidation phase of Bitcoin will end and whether it can break the price deadlock to challenge historical highs again.

In fact, after Bitcoin's fourth halving in April, the market immediately entered a significant consolidation phase. Historical data shows that there is often a consolidation period after each halving. However, seasoned cryptocurrency trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out on platform X that：

Since reaching its historical peak in mid-March, Bitcoin's price adjustment period has seemed unusually long. This nearly six-month consolidation phase is rare compared to previous cycle peaks, and the current price is approaching the high of the last cycle.

At the current point in time, when will the crypto market experience a surge?

Based on the current market trends and historical data, it appears that we may be in the accumulation stage, and the crypto market is expected to see an uptrend in Q4. The reasons are as follows:

1. Accumulation stage: Smart funds (such as institutions investing through ETFs) may continue to accumulate Bitcoin during this stage.

Last Friday, the USA Bitcoin spot ETF saw inflows exceeding $0.25 billion for seven consecutive days, reaching the highest level in nearly a month. This also resulted in the weekly fund inflow of the crypto fund exceeding $0.5 billion, a significant increase compared to the previous week's $32.58 million. Most of the funds came in after Powell's speech.

In addition, according to Farside Investors, the USA Bitcoin spot ETF has accumulated net inflows totaling $18.078 billion since its launch, setting a new record.

2. Historical Patterns: Based on the monthly returns of Bitcoin over the past ten years, the performance in September and October almost perfectly matches the typical transition from the 'consolidation/bear market' phase to the 'bull market' phase following a halving event. If this pattern holds true this year, we may see the current consolidation phase end in September, followed by a significant increase in October.

• The average return for September is -4.78%, with a median of -5.58%, making it one of the worst-performing months in history.

• In contrast, October has an average return of 22.90%, with a median of 27.70%, consistently making it one of the best-performing months.

The consistency of this performance is particularly noteworthy. According to the displayed data, out of 11 years, October has had positive returns in 9 years, with some years showing remarkable gains (e.g., 60.79% in 2013, 47.81% in 2017, and 39.93% in 2021). If the historical pattern continues, we may see the real bull market begin in the fourth quarter of 2024 or the first quarter of 2025.

3. Mining costs are an important reference for the price trends of Bitcoin: Historically, periods when the Bitcoin price falls below the cost of mining do not last long. Since the Bitcoin halving on April 20 this year, the cost of mining Bitcoin has risen to above $70,000, which is 20% higher than the current market price.

Market analysts point out that although the mining cost of Bitcoin does not directly determine its price ceiling, it significantly impacts the price floor. This impact stems not from miners selling at the cost price, but rather from the psychological expectations of the demand side of the market.

When the market price of Bitcoin falls below the mining cost, investors often perceive buying Bitcoin directly on the secondary market as more cost-effective than investing substantial capital and time in mining. This pursuit of 'value for money' prompts an increase in market demand for Bitcoin.

However, if the Bitcoin price continues to fall to a level where miners struggle to cover their costs, some miners may choose to exit, reducing their mining power input. As mining power decreases, the mining difficulty and associated costs also decrease. At this point, due to the diminishing 'value for money' aspect, market demand may weaken, leading to further price declines and potentially forming a so-called 'death spiral'.

Therefore, under certain conditions, the mining cost impacts the lower limit of Bitcoin's price."

What will be the next narrative once interest rate cuts are certain?

There have been many events this year that have affected the cryptocurrency market, including developments with Bitcoin, Ethereum, spot ETFs, and the Fed's interest rate cuts. Currently, corresponding statements or events are confirming their objectives. This year, the US presidential election may be the only major event that will ultimately impact the market significantly.

Polymarket data on the probability of winning the US presidential election shows that Trump and Harris have similar chances. As of the time of writing, Trump leads Harris by a slight margin of 1%.

It should be noted that independent presidential candidate Robert Francis Kennedy announced the suspension of his campaign and expressed support for Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump. US media analysis suggests that this move may introduce new uncertainty into the US elections.

Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, believes that Trump’s potential victory in the November election could boost asset prices, including Bitcoin. The market currently believes that the chances of Trump winning are higher than what the polls indicate, and considers this a positive development.

Bernstein points out that the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, may experience significant fluctuations due to the upcoming US presidential election results. The report suggests that:

If Trump is re-elected, it could trigger a bottom rebound in Bitcoin's price and drive up the prices of major cryptocurrencies. The market seems to view Trump's potential victory as a bullish signal for cryptocurrency policies. However, if Harris wins, the market may experience a price decline due to Trump's defeat.

Nevertheless, TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg proposed in his report that Harris' election may be more crypto-friendly compared to the current government. Seiberg predicts that a Harris administration could strengthen investor protection measures and maintain the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) role in regulating tokens and trading platforms. This could imply that the Harris administration would adopt stricter investor protection measures than the Trump administration.

However, overall, whether Trump or Harris wins, the trend toward mainstream acceptance of the crypto industry seems irreversible. Looking ahead, 2024 may be considered a milestone year in the development of the crypto industry.