The long-awaited "NVIDIA time" is about to make a big impact on the market.

After the post-market in the US on Wednesday Eastern Time, known as the "most important stock in the world". $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ About to release the financial report for the second fiscal quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, followed by an earnings conference call. Nvidia's report card not only affects itself, but also the global technology and even the financial industry chain.

With the frenzy of AI, NVIDIA is highly anticipated by the market. The market has optimistic expectations that NVIDIA's revenue this quarter will double compared to the previous year, and it is also expected that the company's stock price will reach a new high. Of course, there are also continuous doubts such as "AI being overhyped" and "NVIDIA's valuation being too high".

Whether NVIDIA can catch the market's optimism and renew the "AI faith" is the key. JPMorgan Chase believes that if NVIDIA's revenue exceeds expectations, it may drive a 3-15% increase in AI-related stocks, but if not, it may cause a collapse in AI stocks. Bank of America believes that if NVIDIA's performance is disappointing, there may be a 10% fluctuation, equivalent to a fluctuation of about 300 billion US dollars.

In addition to performance, the production schedule of NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip, Blackwell, has also become a focus of attention.

According to Zerohedge, NVIDIA's earnings data is usually released around 4:20 pm Eastern Time (5:20 am Beijing Time on Thursday), followed by a conference call at 5:00 pm Eastern Time (6:00 am Beijing Time on Thursday).

Can revenue double? Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley have optimistic expectations.

Nvidia has soared about 160% year to date, with a market cap of just over 3 trillion US dollars, while the average stock in the S&P 500 index is only 99 billion US dollars. However, according to Koyfin data, the stock seems to have stagnated somewhat after reaching a peak of around $140 in June.

Can the latest financial report drive Nvidia's stock price higher again? The market generally expects Nvidia's Q2 revenue to double year-on-year, an increase of approximately 112%, reaching $28.68 billion.

Goldman Sachs is bullish on Nvidia and has provided a revenue estimate higher than the market expectations. The institution forecasts the company's Q2 revenue to reach $29.769 billion, with an EPS of $0.68, surpassing market expectations by 4.1% and 5.9% respectively. Goldman Sachs believes that the Q2 financial report will show strong demand for Nvidia's H100 GPU and the bulk shipment of H200 has begun. Goldman Sachs stated:

There is upside potential in Nvidia's profitability, with an expected EPS of $4.16 for the fiscal year 2025; and the strong demand trends continue, with robust demand from cloud computing service providers (CSPs) and enterprises, which could support Nvidia's performance.

The performance pace of the past few quarters, that is, the revenue of each quarter was approximately $1.5 billion higher than expected (with reference to the expected revenue of approximately $28.8 billion in the July quarter), and it is expected that the revenue of the next quarter will increase by approximately $2 billion on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

On the other hand, JPMorgan expects Nvidia's Q2 revenue to reach $29.85 billion, also exceeding the market consensus of $28.6 billion, with a guidance range of $27.4 to $28.56 billion:

Regarding the Q2 expectations:

Revenue: $29.85 billion, guidance range of $27.44-$28.56 billion, market consensus value of $28.6 billion.

Data center revenue: $25.52 billion (compared to $22.6 billion in the previous quarter).

Gross margin of 76.2% (guidance range of 75%-76%).

Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.69, with a market consensus of $0.64.

In terms of performance guidance,

Q3 revenue of $32.95 billion, with a market consensus of $31.41 billion.

For fiscal years 2025 and 2026, revenue is projected to be $125.7 billion and $186.6 billion, with a market consensus of $120.3 billion and $166.18 billion respectively.

In the research report on August 25th, Morgan Stanley also expressed optimism about Nvidia's performance, stating that "we expect this to be a strong quarter and it is likely to exceed higher expectations."

Morgan Stanley pointed out that if Nvidia's revenue exceeds expectations, AI-related stocks could see a 3-15% upside. Conversely, if it falls short, the entire AI stock group may see a 5-10% downside, and stock preferences may reverse.

However, Morgan Stanley advised not to give up on AI-related stocks even if the third-quarter financial report is disappointing. They believe that although the valuation of AI stocks has been readjusted, it is still far from bubble levels, and it is normal for stock prices to experience some pullbacks in the price discovery phase.

Interestingly, the cryptocurrency market seems to have quietly voted in favor of Nvidia. Analysis points out that based on the recent performance of AI tokens, the cryptocurrency market appears to have given a vote of confidence to Nvidia's financial report. AI cryptocurrencies have surged in the past week, outperforming the overall cryptocurrency market.

Will Nvidia experience a $300 billion fluctuation? Bank of America warns not to underestimate the risks.

Analyst Gonzalo Asis of Bank of America warned in a recent report that the market may be underestimating the risk of disappointing performance from Nvidia and that the financial results could bring unexpected volatility to the market.

Currently, the options market has "booked" a high volatility for Nvidia's stock price after the financial report. The implied volatility of Nvidia options is as high as 10% (calculated based on a market cap of $3 trillion, equivalent to a $300 billion fluctuation), and since 2018, the stock has never fallen by more than 8% on the day of the financial report. The Bank of America report mentions:

The implied stock price volatility of Nvidia options is 10%, which means that the stock price may fluctuate in either direction by 10%. Since 2018, the stock has never fallen more than 8% on the day of the report.

The volatility index (VIX) on August 5th was 65, highlighting the return of fragility to the broader market, and the S&P 500 index tends to remain fragile after such a large shock. Any unfavorable results of Nvidia's financial report may exacerbate market instability.

Next-generation AI chip Blackwell's schedule causes concerns.

Goldman Sachs believes that Nvidia's Q3 revenue guidance reaching market expectations may not have a significant impact on the stock. What really affects the stock is whether the company can alleviate investors' concerns about potential delays of Blackwell due to chip design adjustments.

Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang previously stated in May that the chip will be shipped in the second quarter of this year. Earlier this month, The Information reported that the company is facing production issues, which could delay mass shipments to the first quarter of 2025. Analysts point out that design barriers may delay shipment time.

Goldman Sachs stated that while the possibility of such a delay cannot be ruled out, after investigating the supply chain and observing strong procurement demand, increased capital expenditures by cloud computing companies, etc., Goldman Sachs concluded that the current situation in the AI chip market is very good.

Some analysts have suggested that Nvidia can offset most of the impact of Blackwell chip delay by using the previous generation Hopper chips to replace Blackwell chip orders. In a report in August, HSBC analyst Frank Lee wrote: "We expect Nvidia to reduce its focus on the Blackwell B100/B200 GPU in the second half of the year and instead increase its focus on the Hopper H200."

JPMorgan believes that the production capacity of Nvidia's GB200 will slow down in the second half of 2024, but is expected to expand significantly in 2025. Despite initial production challenges, it is expected that the GPU shipments related to Blackwell will still reach around 4.5 million units or above in 2025.

What else is worth paying attention to?

"This is currently the most important stock in the world," said Eric Jackson, an analyst at EMJ Capital, "If they fail, it will bring significant problems to the entire market. I think their stock price will unexpectedly rise."

Multiple analysts believe that NVIDIA's financial report is a referendum on investments in AI and the semiconductor industry.

They stated that NVIDIA's rapid growth will inevitably slow down, and various risks from peer competition, macroeconomic factors, and geopolitical issues will gradually become apparent in the coming years. However, they still believe that good times will continue, at least temporarily.

At the same time, September is considered the most weak month for the stock market, with the S&P 500 index rising only 44% of the time during this period, with an average return of -1.20%. Bank of America pointed out that the September and October returns in presidential election years are also poor, averaging -0.46% and -0.34% respectively.

Editor/Somer