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理想渡过了最困难的一个季度

Ideal has passed the most difficult quarter.

wallstreetcn ·  Aug 28 10:48

"Dream of the giants" returns.

Author | Chai Xuchen Editor | Zhou Zhiyu Faced with the trend of new energy electrification and the loss of market share under price wars, joint venture car companies have been "Renovating" their famous cars in an attempt to mount a strong counterattack. On May 30, SAIC Volkswagen's Touareg L Pro was launched. The car, which is said to be "the smartest gasoline car", had been preheated for nearly two months prior to its launch. The launch invited representatives from DJI Car and Tencent Travel, as well as the person in charge of iFLYTEK, all of whom attended in person to demonstrate the strength of its smart driving and smart cabin. As a "meritorious model" of SAIC Volkswagen, Touareg has been synonymous with Volkswagen SUVs for the past 15 years and was once the best-selling joint venture SUV. With a monthly sales volume of nearly 20,000 units for a long time, it occupies a 20% share of SAIC Volkswagen. SAIC Volkswagen hopes that the new Touareg will become a disruptor in the current market, from gasoline car intelligence to a stable price system with value-added buyback policy. In the view of Yu Jingmin, Vice President of Sales and Marketing of SAIC Volkswagen, new energy vehicles still have range anxiety and gasoline cars have an advantage that needs no explanation, but the biggest difference between them and electric vehicles lies mainly in their appearance and intelligence. After fulfilling the core needs of contemporary consumers, this once "famous car" seems to be reborn. Thus, from DJI's advanced intelligent driving solution to iFLYTEK's smart cabin voice assistant, this 200,000 yuan-level SUV brings together the strengths of various parties, aiming to break through the industry's perception that gasoline cars are less intelligent than electric vehicles. The launch of the new Touareg marks the beginning of SAIC Volkswagen's counterattack. In a post-event interview, Yu Jingmin mentioned several times that due to external cooperation and the accumulation of joint venture partners, SAIC Volkswagen's technology center is actually ahead of many independent brands, but unfortunately the rhythm is too slow. The company will now accelerate its efforts to catch up and even surpass in electric, hybrid or gasoline cars. Yu Jingmin revealed to Wall Street News that the new Touareg is the first gasoline car product in the Pro series, which is focused on intelligence, and that the Passat and Touareg Pro versions will also be introduced within the year. While polishing its technology, it is also preparing for the intelligence of its A-class cars. A counteroffensive war ignited by a gasoline fueled chariot seems to be brewing rapidly. But to be fair, SAIC Volkswagen's intelligence still lags far behind new forces such as Huawei, Xiaopeng, and Ideal. At the same time, in the current context where BBA is crazy about price cuts and the BMW electric car at over 180,000 yuan is setting a new industry low price, the 236,800 yuan Touareg L Pro seems somewhat out of step and the counterattack is difficult to achieve. In response to the challenge, SAIC Volkswagen has given a three-year 20% discount buyback plan. Users no longer need to worry about the fluctuation of vehicle purchase costs and second-hand car prices. SAIC Volkswagen locks in the difference between the purchase and final selling prices of users' vehicles, in a move to crack the price war. This also buys precious time for SAIC Volkswagen to speed up product and intelligence catch-up. This is the backdrop of the efforts to win back the former "king" of the Chinese car market.

In today's weather is good. Today's weather is good.

After the MEGA turmoil, Ideal finally stabilized the situation through a series of reflections and adjustments.

In the just past second quarter, Ideal withstood market competition, with a delivery volume increase of 26% to 0.1086 million units, and achieved the coveted top spot in the domestic market with a price of 0.2 million yuan or more (market share of 14.4%). The quarterly revenue also soared to 31.7 billion yuan.

However, Ideal also paid a price for this, with a year-on-year decline of nearly 52% in net profit attributable to shareholders, shrinking from nearly 2.3 billion yuan in the same period last year to 1.1 billion yuan. Fortunately, the gross profit margin of the automotive business did not falter, only declining by 0.6 percentage points to 18.7% compared to the first quarter, slightly higher than the market expectation of 18%.

Ideal openly stated internally that it has "survived the most difficult quarter". And the one that rescued it from the fire and water was the Ideal L6, which went on sale in mid-April.

This is the first time that Ideal has ventured into the entry-level products priced below 0.3 million yuan, targeting the young market. After completing the climb in production, this car achieved sales of over 20,000 units in June and July. Coupled with the steady delivery volume of 24 models of L7/8/9, Ideal's total sales volume returned to the "50,000" mark in July.

Finding their own rhythm, the ideal has also released a delivery guide for the third quarter of 0.145 million-0.155 million vehicles, an increase of about 40% year-on-year; revenue will also increase to 39.4 billion-42.2 billion yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 14% to 22%.

However, from the difference between revenue and delivery expectations, we can see that the ideal expects the single-car price to further decline in the third quarter, and the market is concerned about whether its gross margin can stop falling.

At the earnings conference that evening, Chairman Li Xiang reassured investors. He said that the vehicle gross profit margin of the company is expected to reach 19% in the third quarter, with an overall gross margin of over 20%.

However, this year the ideal has no new product lineup. In the extended-range track, with the aggressive entry of Huawei's Wanjie M9, the high-end L8 and L9 of the ideal may continue to face pressure in the second half of the year. What will be the next steps for the ideal in achieving a rebound in gross margin and continued growth?

The hope for the ideal lies in the smart driving in the second half of the year and the launch of pure electric products next year.

At this earnings conference, Li Xiang focused on the progress of in-house smart driving research and development. He mentioned that in the second quarter, the ideal invested 1 billion yuan in intelligentization and launched a no-map NOA in July that is not limited to cities and roads.

The increased investment in smart driving quickly led to the conversion of orders. Li Xiang revealed that the proportion of potential users who come to the store to test drive NOA has doubled, and currently, the proportion of orders for the top-of-the-line AD MAX version is almost more than half (37% in May), especially for top-of-the-line orders for cars above 0.3 million yuan, the quantity is close to 70%.

With the support of 'end-to-end' and the VLM big model, the ideal smart driving is still iterating rapidly. Li Xiang said that the internal test version of NOA is being iterated at a speed of 3-4 versions per week, and the daily active users of city NOA have increased by nearly 8 times.

Ideal CEO Ma Donghui pointed out that the promotion of intelligent driving and sales volume are mutually reinforcing. NOA catalyzes sales volume while sales volume also improves AI training speed. 'This is a process of positive snowballing.'

This series of efforts is also paving the way for the explosion of Ideal's full product spectrum.

During this reveal, Ma Donghui disclosed that Ideal will launch multiple 800V pure electric SUVs next year. The production capacity plan can meet the expected sales demand, and the supply chain is also accelerating at the same frequency. The pure electric vehicle models are confident in delivering according to plan.

However, with the 'lesson' from previous MEGA, Idea has become more cautious this time.

Li Xiang mentioned in the conference call that there are currently two focal tasks for their pure electric products: first is the exterior design, and secondly, before delivering the pure electric cars, being able to provide 2,000 super charging stations to users.

As of August 25th, Ideal has built 730 super charging stations and 3,416 charging piles nationwide. Among them, high-speed layout takes the lead with over 490 super charging stations, making it the top in the industry.

Internal sources at Ideal told Wall Street News that the process for pure electric vehicles is from 0 to 1. Ideal must meet the strong demand for charging networks from high-end pure electric vehicle owners. Only when the number of self-operated super charging stations reaches a quantity similar to Tesla China (0.0115 million) will it be the appropriate time for product market launch. 'Ideal will patiently do the 0 to 1.'

After stabilizing the extended-range product market this year, Ideal has begun to invest heavily and accelerate catch-up, rediscovering the goldmine of the pure electric vehicle market. Li Xiang has also shown his ambition, 'hoping to enter the forefront of the high-end pure electric vehicle sector in two years.'

In Li Xiang's view, the domestic penetration rate of new energy has already exceeded half. In the next stage, mainstream consumer choices will favor top brands. Therefore, Lixiang needs to strive to be close to BYD and Tesla to achieve similar market recognition.

After climbing out of the pit, Lixiang seems to have not changed its determination to enter the trillion-dollar club and achieve global top-level scale and status. The question is, can it make the right bet this time? Perhaps the market will provide the answer next year.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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