德银分析师Matthew Raakin等人在本周稍早前公布的研究表示，Deutsche Bank believes that if the labor market remains stable, the Federal Reserve may choose to gradually reduce interest rates by 25 basis points, and will not reduce interest rates sharply all at once.
Inflation is cooling down more than expected, combined with Powell's dovish speech at the global central banks' annual meeting, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by nearly 100 basis points by the end of the year, which means that at least one of the next three interest rate meetings will make a significant 50 basis point cut.
However, according to the latest research report from Deutsche Bank, in the past thirty years, the Fed has never initiated such a large interest rate cut to start a new rate-cutting cycle.
Deutsche Bank analysts, including Matthew Raakin, stated in a study released earlier this week that when the Fed adjusts interest rates, it usually takes a cautious approach at the FOMC meeting, and has never made a significant interest rate cut. On the contrary, significant rate cuts generally occur at ad hoc meetings or shortly after them.
The Deutsche Bank report mentioned that although Powell confirmed the possibility of a rate cut in his speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank's annual meeting, he did not provide specific guidance on the timing and magnitude of the rate cut. Powell emphasized that future rate cut decisions will depend on "upcoming data, evolving economic outlook, and risk balance".
Deutsche Bank believes that if the labor market remains stable, the Fed may choose to gradually cut rates by 25 basis points, rather than making a large cut at once. However, if the labor market outlook deteriorates or the economy faces downside risks, the Fed may take more aggressive rate cut measures.
The report reminds that despite strong market expectations, the Fed's decisions will be based on real-time assessments of economic data, rather than one-sided wishes of the market.
Editor/ping
