Why SICC's (SHSE:688234) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem
Why SICC's (SHSE:688234) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem
We didn't see SICC Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:688234) stock surge when it reported robust earnings recently. We decided to have a deeper look, and we believe that investors might be worried about several concerning factors that we found.
我们没有看到SICC股份有限公司(SHSE:688234)股价在最近公布强劲业绩时出现上涨。我们决定进行更深入的研究,我们认为投资者可能对我们发现的一些令人担忧的因素感到担忧。
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Examining Cashflow Against SICC's Earnings
分析SICC的现金流与其收益
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
在高级财务中,用来衡量公司将报告的利润转换为自由现金流(FCF)的主要比率是应计比率(来自现金流量表)。该应计比率从给定期间的FCF中减去利润,并将结果除以该时间段内公司的平均营运资产。你可以将应计比率从现金流量表视为“非自由现金流利润比率”。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
这意味着负责任的比率为好事,因为它表明公司所带来的自由现金流比利润所表明的要多。这并不是要暗示我们应该担心正的负责任率,但值得注意的是,在负责任比率相当高的地方有一些学术证据表明,负责任比率高是近期利润的一个不好的征兆。
SICC has an accrual ratio of 0.27 for the year to June 2024. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥128.2m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥960m in the last year. We also note that SICC's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥960m. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
截至2024年6月,SICC的预提比率为0.27。不幸的是,这意味着其自由现金流远远不及其报告的利润。尽管它报告了1.282亿元的利润,但从自由现金流来看,它实际上在过去一年中支出了9.6亿元。我们还注意到,SICC去年的自由现金流实际上也是负的,所以我们可以理解如果股东对其9.6亿元的流出感到困扰。话虽如此,事情远未结束。我们可以看到,非常规项目影响了其法定利润,从而影响了预提比率。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
这可能会让您想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于其估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
非常规项目如何影响利润?
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥55m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. We can see that SICC's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to June 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
事实上,该公司在过去一年中利润得到了飞凡项目的支持,金额达到了5500万元人民币,这或许可以解释为什么它的应计比重如此之低。我们无法否认,利润较高通常让我们感到乐观,但我们更希望这种利润能够持续下去。我们对全球大多数上市公司进行了数据分析,发现飞凡项目往往是一次性的。这一点并不令人意外,考虑到名称。我们可以看到,在2024年6月的一年中,SICC的正面飞凡项目相对其利润来说非常显著。其他条件相同的情况下,这可能导致财务报表利润成为衡量基础盈利能力的不准确指标。
Our Take On SICC's Profit Performance
我们对SICC的利润表现有以下看法
Summing up, SICC received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at SICC's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing SICC at this point in time. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for SICC you should know about.
总结一下,SICC的利润受到飞凡项目的良好推动,但无法通过自由现金流来证明其盈利。出于上述原因,我们认为浏览SICC的财务报表利润可能让它看起来比它基本情况要好。因此,尽管盈利质量很重要,但同样重要的是考虑SICC当前面临的风险。每个公司都有风险,我们已经发现了一个关于SICC的警示信号,你应该知道。
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
在本文章中,我们研究了几个可能影响利润数据实用性的因素,我们对此持谨慎态度。但是,如果您能够将精力集中在细节上,就一定会发现更多。例如,许多人认为高股本回报是良好企业经济的指标,而其他人则喜欢"跟随资金"并寻找内部人员在购买的股票。因此,您可能希望查看这个高股本回报的免费收藏,或此具有高内部所有权的股票列表。
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