这可能是一个错误的举措。这不仅会使未来货币政策放宽步伐的信息变得模糊不清，还可能加剧人们对经济衰退的担忧。从施罗德投资的角度来看，美国经济正在放缓，但仍保持稳健。考虑到自然利率 (R-star) ，即经济处于均衡状态的实际利率的不确定性，采取谨慎且依赖经济数据的方式来消除对政策的限制是必要的。Schroders investment released a statement that Powell delivered an eagerly anticipated speech at the global central bank annual meeting in Jackson Hole, providing crucial forward guidance.
Zhixun finance and economics app learned that Schroders investment stated that Powell delivered an eagerly anticipated speech at the global central bank annual meeting in Jackson Hole, acknowledging a noticeable cooling in the labor market and stating that policymakers have ample room to address more significant deterioration. However, he emphasized that the timing and pace of rate cuts depend on the upcoming economic data, evolving economic outlook, and risk balance.
Powell stated that he is not seeking nor welcoming further cooling in the labor market, which the financial markets consider slightly dovish. This provides room for a 50-basis-point rate cut in September 2024. Currently, the futures market indicates a one-third probability of this scenario occurring, compared to the previous 25%.
This may be a wrong move. Not only does it blur the information on the future pace of monetary policy easing, but it may also exacerbate concerns about an economic recession. From the perspective of Schroders investment, the US economy is slowing down but still robust. Given the uncertainty of the natural interest rate (R-star), i.e., the uncertainty of the real interest rate at which the economy is in equilibrium, a cautious approach, relying on economic data to remove restrictions on policy, is necessary.
Schroders investment still believes that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut rates by 25 basis points for the first time in September, assuming a rebound in August US employment data after the impact of the hurricane subsides, followed by quarterly rate cuts.
The extent of the Fed's rate cuts will depend on the development of the US economy, but forecasts indicate that a 100-basis-point rate cut by mid-2025 or before will help support economic growth and effectively curb inflation.
However, Powell's remarks suggest that concerns about the labor market could prompt the committee to cut rates to a lower restrictive level more quickly. Analysis shows that if the Fed implements the aggressive rate cuts expected by the financial markets, it may lead to a potential re-emergence of price pressure and force the FOMC to raise rates again. Therefore, the committee should remain calm at this critical moment.
