There May Be Underlying Issues With The Quality Of Goneo Group's (SHSE:603195) Earnings
There May Be Underlying Issues With The Quality Of Goneo Group's (SHSE:603195) Earnings
Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Goneo Group Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603195) stock hasn't moved much. Our analysis suggests that this might be because shareholders have noticed some concerning underlying factors.
尽管Goneo Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603195)发布了一些强劲的收益,但其股票市场并未有太多波动。我们的分析表明,股东们可能已经注意到一些令人担忧的潜在因素。
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Examining Cashflow Against Goneo Group's Earnings
分析Goneo Group的现金流情况与其盈利情况
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
在高金融领域,用于衡量公司将其报告利润转化为自由现金流(FCF)的关键比率是从现金流量中计算的应计率。简单点来说,这个比率从净利润中减去自由现金流,然后将这个数字除以公司在那段时间内的平均营业资产。从现金流来看,你可以把它看作是“非FCF利润率”。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
这意味着负的应计比率是一件好事,因为它表明公司带来的自由现金流比利润预示的要多。尽管应计比率高于零并不令人担忧,但我们认为值得注意的是,当公司应计比率相对较高时。引用Lewellen和Resutek 2014年的一篇论文:“应计较高的公司未来可能不那么有盈利能力”。
Goneo Group has an accrual ratio of 1.10 for the year to June 2024. Ergo, its free cash flow is significantly weaker than its profit. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. In fact, it had free cash flow of CN¥3.5b in the last year, which was a lot less than its statutory profit of CN¥4.29b. Goneo Group shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months. The good news for shareholders is that Goneo Group's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
Goneo Group在截至2024年6月的一年中的应计比率为1.10。因此,其自由现金流比利润要弱得多。从统计上来说,这对未来的盈利是一个真正的负面因素。事实上,它在过去一年中的自由现金流为35亿人民币,远远低于其法定盈利42.9亿人民币。Goneo Group的股东们无疑希望它的自由现金流在明年反弹,因为在过去的十二个月里它有所下降。对于股东来说,好消息是Goneo Group的应计比率去年要好得多,因此今年的负面读数可能只是利润和自由现金流之间短期不匹配的情况。如果确实是这样的话,股东们应该寻找与当年利润相比有所改善的现金流情况。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
这可能会让您想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于其估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。
Our Take On Goneo Group's Profit Performance
我们对Goneo Group的利润表现的看法
As we discussed above, we think Goneo Group's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. For this reason, we think that Goneo Group's statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. Nonetheless, it's still worth noting that its earnings per share have grown at 46% over the last three years. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Goneo Group (1 is potentially serious) you should be familiar with.
正如我们上面所讨论的,我们认为Goneo Group的利润并没有受到自由现金流的支持,这可能会引起一些投资者的担忧。因此,我们认为Goneo Group的法定利润可能不是其潜在盈利能力的好指导,可能会让投资者对公司有过于积极的印象。尽管如此,值得注意的是,其每股收益在过去三年增长了46%。最重要的是,如果您想正确了解公司,必须考虑不仅仅是以上因素。鉴于这一点,除非我们对风险有全面的了解,否则我们不会考虑投资股票。例如,我们已经发现了2个Goneo Group的警示信号(其中1个可能非常严重),您应该了解。
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Goneo Group's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
今天,我们聚焦于一个单一的数据点,以更好地了解Goneo Group的利润性质。但是,还有很多其他方法可以了解公司。有些人认为股权回报率高是一个优质企业的好迹象。因此,您可能希望查看这个拥有高股权回报率的公司免费合集,或者这份拥有高内部持股的股票清单。
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