Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster now expects electric vehicles to account for only 25% of new car sales in the U.S. in 2030, down from his earlier forecast of 50%.
What Happened: "We're updating our US EV market forecast to reflect the EV Winter," Munster said on Friday, referring to the current slowdown in the pace of EV adoption.
Munster attributes the slowdown to consumer anxiety regarding the availability of charging infrastructure and range in addition to the higher cost of EVs as compared to gas vehicles. The consumer hesitation has caused traditional automakers like Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis to scale back EV investment, further aggravating the slowdown, Munster said.
Deepwater now expects the EV industry to cross the 50% of new car sales threshold only by 2036.
Forecasts for EV Giant Tesla: Munster now sees Tesla growing its deliveries in the U.S. by an average of 15% per year with the EV giant's US market share at about 40% in 2030. According to estimates from Kelley Blue Book, Tesla had a market share of 49.7% in the second quarter of 2024 with 164,264 sales.
Though Munster sees this market share drop, he still believes Tesla will sell 1.8 million vehicles in the U.S. in 2030.
"The reason is we believe Tesla's continued investment in EV production will yield the best vehicle for the price. That means consumers will view Tesla as the best value in EVs, which should support a much higher market share..." Munster said.
Silver Lining: Munster, however, believes electrification is the future, and spring is coming in the form of over 30 new EV models slated to be released through the end of 2025. This includes Tesla's Model 2, the next generation of the Chevrolet Bolt EV, the Chrysler EV Crossover, and Lucid Gravity, among others.
"While the adoption curve is taking longer than anticipated we believe an electrification is the future," Munster said.
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深水資產管理管理合夥人吉恩·芒斯特現在預計，到2030年，電動汽車將僅佔美國新車銷量的25％，低於他先前預測的50％。
發生了什麼：「我們正在更新美國電動汽車市場的預測，以反映電動汽車的冬季，」 芒斯特週五表示，他指的是目前電動汽車普及步伐放緩。
芒斯特將經濟放緩歸因於消費者對充電基礎設施和續航里程的可用性的擔憂，以及與汽油車相比，電動汽車的成本更高。芒斯特說，消費者的猶豫導致福特、通用汽車和Stellantis等傳統汽車製造商縮減了電動汽車的投資，進一步加劇了經濟放緩。
Deepwater現在預計，只有到2036年，電動汽車行業才能突破50％的新車銷售門檻。
對電動汽車巨頭特斯拉的預測：芒斯特現在預計，到2030年，特斯拉在美國的交付量平均每年增長15％，而這家電動汽車巨頭在美國的市場份額約爲40％。根據凱利藍皮書的估計，特斯拉在2024年第二季度的市場份額爲49.7％，銷售額爲164,264輛。
儘管芒斯特認爲這一市場份額有所下降，但他仍然認爲特斯拉將在2030年在美國銷售180萬輛汽車。
「原因是我們相信特斯拉對電動汽車生產的持續投資將生產出最物有所值的汽車。這意味着消費者將把特斯拉視爲電動汽車中最物有所值的汽車，這將支持更高的市場份額...」芒斯特說。
一線希望：但是，芒斯特認爲電氣化是未來，春天即將到來，計劃在2025年底之前發佈30多款新的電動汽車車型。這包括特斯拉的Model 2、下一代雪佛蘭Bolt EV、克萊斯勒電動汽車跨界車和Lucid Gravity等。
芒斯特說：「儘管採用週期比預期的要長，但我們認爲電氣化是未來。」
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