Shanghai International Port (Group) Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600018) just released its latest second-quarter results and things are looking bullish. Shanghai International Port (Group) delivered a significant beat to revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, hitting CN¥11b-12% above indicated-andCN¥0.20-33% above forecasts- respectively The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
上港集團(SHSE:600018)剛剛發佈了最新的第二季度業績,情況看好。上港集團營業收入和每股收益(EPS)超出預期,達到了110億元人民幣,比預期高出12%,每股收益爲0.20人民幣,比預期高出33%。分析師通常會在每份盈利報告後更新他們的預測,我們可以根據他們的預測判斷他們對公司的看法是否改變,或者是否有任何新的值得注意的問題。我們認爲讀者可能會發現看到分析師對明年最新(法定)盈利後的預測很有趣。
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After the latest results, the consensus from Shanghai International Port (Group)'s four analysts is for revenues of CN¥39.8b in 2024, which would reflect a perceptible 3.6% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 4.1% to CN¥0.64. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥36.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.60 in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.
根據最新的業績,上港集團的四位分析師一致預計2024年營業收入將達到398億元人民幣,相比去年的業績將有3.6%的下降。預計每股收益將累積增長4.1%,達到0.64人民幣。然而,在最新盈利之前,分析師曾經預期2024年的營收爲369億元人民幣,每股收益(EPS)爲0.60元。看起來,在最新的業績之後,分析師對營收和盈利的預測更加樂觀。
With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 5.1% to CN¥5.28per share. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Shanghai International Port (Group) analyst has a price target of CN¥6.30 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥4.30. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
鑑於這些升級,我們並不驚訝分析師將他們的股價目標上調了5.1%至5.28元人民幣/股。然而,從這些數據中我們還可以得出其他結論,因爲一些投資者在評估分析師的股價目標時也喜歡考慮預測的差距。最樂觀的上港集團分析師將股價目標設定爲6.30元人民幣,而最悲觀的將其設定爲4.30元人民幣。這表明預測仍然存在一定的差異,但分析師似乎對股票並不完全持有不同觀點,似乎不像是一敗塗地或者大獲成功的情況。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 7.1% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 2.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.8% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Shanghai International Port (Group) is expected to lag the wider industry.
從一個宏觀角度來看,我們可以通過與過去的績效和行業增長預測進行比較,來理解這些預測的意義。這些預測意味着收入預計將放緩,到2024年底預計年化下降7.1%。這意味着較過去五年的年增長2.8%有顯著的下降。相比之下,我們的數據顯示,同行業中其他(有分析師關注的)公司預計未來年均增長5.8%。因此,儘管其收入預計會減少,但上港集團預計會落後於整個行業。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Shanghai International Port (Group) following these results. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
在這裏最重要的是分析師們提高了他們對上港集團每股收益的預期,這表明在這些成果公佈後,人們對上港集團的樂觀情緒明顯增加。幸運的是,他們也提高了對其營業收入的預期,儘管我們的數據顯示,預計它的表現將不如整個行業。價格目標也有不錯的增加,分析師們顯然認爲企業的內在價值正在提高。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shanghai International Port (Group) going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
基於此思路延伸,我們認爲企業的長期前景比明年的收益更爲重要。在Simply Wall St,我們已經提供了到2026年對上港集團的全系列分析師預測,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Shanghai International Port (Group) (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
話雖如此,仍有必要考慮投資風險的永恒威脅。我們已經找出了上港集團的兩個警示信號(至少有一個讓我們有點不舒服),了解這些應該成爲您的投資過程的一部分。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。