Investors in COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. (HKG:1919) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.1% to close at HK$10.70 following the release of its interim results. Revenues were CN¥101b, 15% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of CN¥1.48 being in line with what the analysts forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings from ten analysts is for revenues of CN¥220.8b in 2024. If met, it would imply a notable 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 44% to CN¥2.18. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥224.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.21 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The consensus price target fell 5.7% to HK$12.44, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the semi-annual results. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$18.02 and the most bearish at HK$8.18 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting COSCO SHIPPING Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 43% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 10% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 0.2% per year. So it's clear with the acceleration in growth, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings is expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, they made no changes to their revenue estimates - and they expect it to perform better than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on COSCO SHIPPING Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - COSCO SHIPPING Holdings has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
