COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Missed Revenue By 15%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Missed Revenue By 15%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Investors in COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. (HKG:1919) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.1% to close at HK$10.70 following the release of its interim results. Revenues were CN¥101b, 15% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of CN¥1.48 being in line with what the analysts forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
中遠海控(HKG:1919)的投資者在上週表現不錯,股價上漲2.1%,報收於10.70港元,這是在公佈中期業績後的表現。營業收入爲1010億元人民幣,低於分析師預期的15%,儘管虧損似乎沒有顯著惡化,每股法定虧損爲1.48元,與分析師的預測相符。現在對投資者來說是一個重要的時刻,他們可以通過公司的報告追蹤其業績,查看專家對明年的預測,並了解對該業務的期望是否發生了變化。出於這個目的,我們收集了最新的法定預測,看看分析師對明年的預期。

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings from ten analysts is for revenues of CN¥220.8b in 2024. If met, it would imply a notable 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 44% to CN¥2.18. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥224.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.21 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
考慮到最新的結果,來自十個分析師的對中遠海控的共識是2024年的營業收入將達到2208億元人民幣。如果實現這一目標,相比過去12個月,這將意味着營業收入的顯著增長20%。預計法定每股收益將飆升44%,達到2.18元。然而,在最新的業績發佈之前,分析師們預測2024年的營業收入爲2244億元人民幣,每股收益爲2.21元。共識分析師們似乎沒有看到這些結果中有任何能改變他們對該業務的看法的因素,因爲他們的預測沒有發生重大變化。
The consensus price target fell 5.7% to HK$12.44, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the semi-annual results. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$18.02 and the most bearish at HK$8.18 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
共識價格目標下調5.7%,至12.44港元,這表明分析師們可能在之前的估值中有些過於樂觀,或者他們預期該公司在半年度業績報告中提供更強勁的指引。另外,觀察分析師估計的範圍也具有一定的指導意義,可以評估離群觀點與平均觀點之間的差異。對於中遠海控,分析師們持有不同的看法,最看好的分析師的估值爲18.02港元,最看淡的爲8.18港元每股。注意到分析師價格目標的差距嗎?對於該基礎業務來說,這對我們意味着存在相當廣泛的可能情景範圍。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting COSCO SHIPPING Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 43% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 10% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 0.2% per year. So it's clear with the acceleration in growth, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings is expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.
從更大的圖景來看,我們可以通過將這些預測與過去的表現和行業增長預估相比較,來理解這些預測的意義。分析師明顯預計中遠海控的增長將加速,到2024年底的預測年增長率達到43%,與過去五年年均10%的歷史增長相比,排名靠前。相比之下,我們的數據顯示,同行業其他(受到分析師關注的)公司的營業收入預計每年縮小0.2%。因此,很明顯,中遠海控的增長加速,預計將比整個行業的增長更快。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, they made no changes to their revenue estimates - and they expect it to perform better than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
最明顯的結論是,最近一段時間業務前景沒有發生重大變化,分析師們維持了他們的盈利預測,與之前的估計一致。值得一提的是,他們對營業收入的預估沒有進行任何更改,並且預計其表現將比整個行業更好。此外,分析師們還下調了價格目標,暗示最新的消息對企業的內在價值產生了更大的悲觀情緒。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on COSCO SHIPPING Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
考慮到這一點,我們不要過於快速得出關於中遠海控的結論。長期盈利能力比明年的利潤更爲重要。在Simply Wall St,我們爲中遠海控提供了截至2026年的全套分析師預測,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
You still need to take note of risks, for example - COSCO SHIPPING Holdings has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.
你仍然需要注意風險,例如 - 中遠海控有3個警示信號(其中一個是重要的),我們認爲你應該了解。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。