Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
As you might know, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600887) last week released its latest half-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CN¥60b revenue coming in 5.7% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.26 missed the mark badly, arriving some 22% below what was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
正如你可能知道的那样,伊利股份有限公司(SHSE:600887)上周发布了最新的半年报,股东们并没有得到很好的回报。结果显示,营业收入为600亿元,比分析师预期低了5.7%。每股收益0.26元的法定收益严重低于预期,低了22%。对于投资者来说,收益是一个重要的时间,他们可以追踪公司的表现,观察分析师对明年的预测,并查看市场对公司的情绪是否有变化。因此,我们收集了最新的盈利后的预测,看看未来一年的预期。
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Following last week's earnings report, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group's 26 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be CN¥121.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be CN¥1.85, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥128.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.99 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.
根据上周的盈利报告,伊利股份的26名分析师预测2024年的营业收入为1217亿元,与过去的12个月相当。每股法定收益预计为1.85元,与过去12个月相当。然而,在最新的盈利报告之前,分析师预计2024年的营业收入为1284亿元,每股收益为1.99元。很明显,最新业绩出炉后,悲观情绪升温,导致营业收入前景下调,每股收益预期微降。
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥31.81 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group analyst has a price target of CN¥36.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥27.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
尽管预测收益有所下调,但31.81元的目标价格并未真正改变,这表明分析师认为这些变动对其内在价值没有实质性影响。然而,只关注一个目标价格可能不明智,因为共识目标实际上是分析师目标价格的平均值。因此,部分投资者喜欢查看估值范围,以了解对公司估值是否存在不同意见。最乐观的分析师将内蒙古伊利实业集团的目标价格设定为36.00元/股,而最悲观的分析师则设定为27.00元/股。由于估值范围较窄,分析师们显然对业务的价值持有类似观点。
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 8.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
这些估计很有意思,但在比较预测时,以内蒙古伊利股份过去的表现和同行业的同行为参照会更有用。我们要强调的是,伊利股份的营业收入增长预计将放缓,到2024年底的预测增长率为3.0%,远低于过去五年8.5%的年增长率。相比之下,该行业其他有分析师覆盖的公司预计每年的营业收入增长率为11%。考虑到预测增速放缓,显然内蒙古伊利股份预计的增速也较其他行业参与者要慢。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥31.81, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
最大的担忧是分析师下调了每股收益预测,暗示内蒙古伊利股份可能面临业务下行的风险。不幸的是,他们也下调了营业收入的估计值,而我们的数据表明与整个行业相比表现不佳。尽管如此,每股收益对业务的内在价值更为重要。共识价格目标仍稳定在31.81人民币,最新的预估不足以对价格目标产生影响。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
继续上述思路,我们认为企业的长期前景比明年的收益更为重要。在Simply Wall St,我们对内蒙古伊利股份的分析师预测有完整的覆盖,涵盖到2026年,你可以在我们的平台上免费查看这些预测数据。
It might also be worth considering whether Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
对于内蒙古伊利股份的债务负担是否适当,可以考虑使用我们在Simply Wall St平台上的债务分析工具。
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