National Silicon Industry Group Co.,Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
National Silicon Industry Group Co.,Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Shareholders might have noticed that National Silicon Industry Group Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:688126) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.2% to CN¥14.69 in the past week. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of CN¥845m missing analyst predictions by 3.0%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of CN¥0.069 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
股東們可能已經注意到,國家硅業集團有限公司, Ltd.(上海證券交易所股票代碼:688126)上週這個時候公佈了第二季度業績。早期的反應並不樂觀,過去一週股價下跌2.2%,至14.69元人民幣。總體而言,這是一個相當負面的結果,84500萬元人民幣的收入比分析師的預測低3.0%。更糟糕的是,該企業報告的法定虧損爲每股0.069元人民幣,較分析師對盈利的預期大幅下降。對於投資者來說,盈利是一個重要時刻,因爲他們可以追蹤公司的業績,查看分析師對明年的預測,看看對公司的情緒是否發生了變化。考慮到這一點,我們收集了最新的法定預測,以了解分析師對明年的預期。
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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from National Silicon Industry GroupLtd's six analysts is for revenues of CN¥3.48b in 2024. This reflects a notable 9.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to creep up to CN¥0.13, on a statutory basis. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥3.80b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.079 in 2024. The analysts have made an abrupt about-face on National Silicon Industry GroupLtd, administering a minor downgrade to to revenue forecasts and slashing the earnings outlook from a profit to loss.
考慮到最新業績,國家硅業集團有限公司的六位分析師的共識預測是,2024年的收入爲34.8元人民幣。這反映了與過去12個月相比,收入顯著增長了9.4%。根據法定,每股虧損預計將攀升至0.13元人民幣。在本報告發布之前,分析師一直在模擬2024年的收入爲38元人民幣,每股收益(EPS)爲0.079元人民幣。分析師突然改變了國家硅業集團有限公司,對收入預測進行了小幅下調,並將盈利前景從盈利下調爲虧損。
There was no major change to the consensus price target of CN¥14.18, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic National Silicon Industry GroupLtd analyst has a price target of CN¥22.70 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥3.70. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
14.18元人民幣的共識目標股價沒有重大變化,這表明儘管每股收益預測較低,但該業務的表現大致符合預期。但是,這並不是我們可以從這些數據中得出的唯一結論,因爲一些投資者在評估分析師目標股價時也喜歡考慮估計值的差異。最樂觀的國家硅工業集團有限公司分析師將目標股價定爲每股22.70元人民幣,而最悲觀的分析師則將其估值爲3.70元人民幣。如您所見,估計範圍很廣,最低估值不到最看漲估計值的一半,這表明對於分析師認爲該業務的表現存在強烈的分歧。因此,根據共識目標股價做出決策可能不是一個好主意,畢竟共識目標價只是如此廣泛的估計值的平均值。
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that National Silicon Industry GroupLtd's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 22% annually. National Silicon Industry GroupLtd is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.
當然,看待這些預測的另一種方法是將它們與行業本身聯繫起來。從最新估計中可以明顯看出,國家硅業集團有限公司的增長率預計將大幅加速,預計到2024年底的年化收入增長20%,將明顯快於過去三年中每年12%的歷史增長。相比之下,同行業的其他公司預計收入每年將增長22%。預計國家硅業集團有限公司的增長速度將與其行業大致相同,因此目前尚不清楚我們能否從其相對於競爭對手的增長中得出任何結論。
The Bottom Line
底線
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting National Silicon Industry GroupLtd to become unprofitable next year. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
要了解的最重要的一點是,分析師預計國家硅業集團明年將無利可圖。他們還下調了收入預期,儘管正如我們之前看到的那樣,預計增長僅與整個行業大致相同。共識目標股價沒有實際變化,這表明根據最新估計,該業務的內在價值沒有發生任何重大變化。
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple National Silicon Industry GroupLtd analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
話雖如此,公司收益的長期軌跡比明年重要得多。美國國家硅業集團有限公司的多位分析師估計,到2026年,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
You can also see our analysis of National Silicon Industry GroupLtd's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
您還可以看到我們對國家硅業集團有限公司董事會和首席執行官薪酬和經驗的分析,以及公司內部人士是否一直在購買股票。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。