September: Worst month for seasonal US stocks + Fed interest rate cut.
This week (8.26-8.30), the inflation indicators favored by the Federal Reserve have risen moderately, adding further signs of an economic "soft landing". The upward trend in the US stock market has clearly slowed down this week. The possibility of a sharp 50 basis points interest rate cut in September has decreased, but Wall Street still expects a significant interest rate cut in November or December.
The S&P 500 index rose 2.28% cumulatively in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 1.76% in August. The Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ) rose 0.66% in August. The Russell 2000 index, which is more sensitive to economic cycles, fell 1.63% cumulatively in August. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (PHLX Semiconductor Index) fell 1.42% in August. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.33% cumulatively in August.
The two-year US Treasury bond yield, which is sensitive to monetary policy, fell 33.27 basis points cumulatively in August, while the 10-year yield fell 12.04 basis points cumulatively in August.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuated downward in August, marking the second consecutive month of decline, with a total decline of 2.27%.
Expectations of increased supply from OPEC+ and changes in regional conflicts, combined with sluggish US demand, led to a cumulative 5.6% decline in US crude oil prices in August. Brent crude oil prices fell 2.38% cumulatively. Due to continued expectations of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the price of gold rose during the month, reaching a historical high of $2531.60 on August 20. Most London-based industrial metals rose in August.
August's US economic data followed the pattern of "downside followed by recovery" seen in July. The market is now heading into the worst month of the year for US stocks, and next week will bring the release of non-farm payrolls data.
