On September 2, the shipping index futures fell across the board. The main contract of Europe route shipping index futures (hereinafter referred to as European route shipping) once expanded its intraday decline to 10%, and as of the report, it fell by 9.31% to 2128.2 points.

Since July 11 this year, the main contract of the shipping index (European route) futures has entered a deep adjustment, with a cumulative decline of up to 62%.

Under the sharp decline in the price of European route shipping futures, most of the AH shipping stocks have moved lower.

As of the report, Cosco Shipping Development fell by more than 4% in the A-share market, China Merchants Energy Shipping fell by nearly 3%, and Phoenix Shipping, Cosco Ship Engy, and others followed the decline.

In the Hong Kong stock market, Cosco Shipping Development fell by more than 4%, Ever Harvest GP fell by more than 3%, and Cosco Shp Sg, Liaoning Port, and others have successively fallen.

Shipping companies announced a major suspension of sailings before the Golden Week

According to The Loadstar article on August 30, due to concerns about another sharp drop in container spot freight rates, several shipping companies have canceled a large number of export flights from Asia to Europe and Asia to the United States before the Golden Week in early October.

A carrier stated that he expects to see 'more' sailings canceled in the key few weeks of the slow season this year to avoid a repeat of rate wars; believing that as long as the diversion through the Red Sea continues and the market maintains its current situation, he is confident this strategy will help navigate through the market fluctuations smoothly.

Drewry's latest assessment of canceled sailings shows that the notification cancellation rate for September on trans-Pacific, Asia-Europe, and trans-Atlantic services has been 10% so far.

It is reported that in the next five weeks, THE Alliance has announced the cancellation of 17 sailings, followed by the Ocean Alliance and 2M Alliance, each announcing the cancellation of 12 and 10 sailings respectively.

Drewry states that so far, 51% of the notified canceled sailings are on the trans-Pacific route, 28% are on the Asia-Europe route, and 21% are on the trans-Atlantic route.

According to foreign media reports, there is a 'rate war' ongoing on the Asia to West Coast USA route. Newly established shipping companies on the trans-Pacific route are competing for market share by offering lower prices, forcing established shipping companies to reduce rates to retain customers.

Additionally, on the morning of September 2nd, the latest data shows that the August Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.4%, up from the previous value of 49.8%. Detailed data indicates a return to expansion in the manufacturing sector, but foreign demand has contracted for the first time this year.

Economic data from Europe and the USA in July weakened across the board beyond expectations, leading to a continuous decline in global restocking momentum.

Analyst: Container freight rates will decrease by 70%.

Since early August, due to the rapid decline in freight rates exceeding market expectations, it is widely expected that the rate of decline in freight rates this year may be similar to 2022.

Recently, shipping consulting firm Linerlytica said that freight rates are expected to drop by 70% in the next 12 months, as statistics from the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) show that shipping companies have failed to prevent the decline in freight rates since July.

Linerlytica reported, "Although the decline is not as severe as the plummet in freight rates at the end of 2022, the current futures price of freight rates is expected to continue to decline in the next 12 months, and it is expected that there will be no rebound at the end of this year and there will be no repeat of the surge in freight rates after the Spring Festival in 2025."

However, Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, believes that a prerequisite for a 70% price drop would be resolving the Red Sea crisis and restoring trade through the Suez Canal.