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iPhone将迎换机潮?Glowtime发布会上苹果AI或决定“生死”

Will iPhone usher in a wave of replacements? At the Glowtime conference, Apple AI may determine the fate.

wallstreetcn ·  Sep 2 05:38

"The Apple Intelligence will play a leading role in the iPhone 16 launch event, and 'Glowtime' is almost certainly referring to the new Siri interface," said Daiwa. The introduction of Apple Intelligence will stimulate demand and accelerate the iPhone replacement cycle. Currently, the iPhone replacement cycle is at a historical peak of 4.8 years.

The countdown to the apple autumn new product launch event has entered its final week, and the iPhone 16 is about to make its debut. The "Asia vets glowtime" may become the highlight of this event.

In September, the apple event "It's Glowtime" is about to take place. The iPhone 16, the new Apple Watch, and the possible launch of new AirPods will be announced.

Morgan Stanley analysts stated in their latest research reports that this event will focus on the generative ai (Apple Intelligence) integrated into the iPhone 16. To achieve AI functionality, the iPhone may increase the DRAM capacity, and the SoC performance will also be significantly upgraded. At the same time, the firm stated that the pricing and battery life of the iPhone will also be important details to watch.

Apple AI will play a leading role throughout, and is expected to accelerate the replacement cycle

According to the morgan stanley analyst, the introduction of Apple Intelligence in the iPhone 16 will help unleash pent-up demand and accelerate the replacement cycle of the iPhone, which is currently at a historically high 4.8 years. This may also support apple's additional iPhone production orders in the next 3 to 12 months.

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The analyst continued to write:

We expect Apple Intelligence to play a leading role at the iPhone 16 launch event, and it is almost certain that "Glowtime" refers to the new Siri user interface in iOS 18. Although we still believe that the launch of Apple Intelligence features will be staggered this autumn, the more Apple Intelligence features Apple showcases on the new iPhone 16 with 8GB of DRAM and a more powerful processor, the more likely consumers are to associate Apple Intelligence with purchasing a new iPhone.

Financial firm Wedbush also has high expectations for the current iPhone upgrade cycle, with analysts at the firm stating that this launch event will kick off the "largest upgrade cycle" in Apple's history.

Morgan Stanley expects that the iPhone 16, 16 Plus, and 16 Pro/Pro Max will be available for pre-order on September 13th and will be available in stores for purchase/shipment on September 20th.

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Screenshot: zollotech revealed the new colors of the iPhone 16 on social media.

The starting price for the iPhone 16 256GB? What else is worth paying attention to besides AI.

In their research report, Morgan Stanley states that the pricing and battery life of the iPhone will also be important details worth paying attention to.

In terms of pricing, Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the pricing of the iPhone 16 will remain unchanged from last year, but Apple may discontinue the 128GB iPhone 16 Pro model, thereby driving a 5% increase in average selling price (ASP) in the 2025 fiscal year. The analysts wrote:

We assume that Apple has discontinued the 128GB iPhone 16 Pro SKU ($999), resulting in a starting price of $1099 for the iPhone 16 Pro, while the entry-level SKU for the iPhone 15 starts at $999. Based on our current bottom-up iPhone model forecast, we expect the iPhone 16 to account for 68% of the FY25 iPhone shipments, compared to 66% in FY24. All of these factors combined, are driving our forecast for a 5% increase in average annual sales revenue for the iPhone in FY25.

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On the battery front, Morgan Stanley stated that there are reports suggesting that Apple will equip the iPhone 16 Pro/Pro Max with new batteries that are approximately 10% larger. Considering the increased computational usage with large language models (LLM) on Apple devices, this is significant.

For other updates to the iPhone 16 series devices, Morgan Stanley expects the iPhone 16 and 16 Plus to undergo limited 'catch-up' upgrades, such as the new 3nm chipset (A18), 8GB DRAM (higher than the 6GB in the iPhone 15/15 Plus), and added gesture buttons.

For the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max, Morgan Stanley expects more significant component upgrades, including:

1) Thinner bezels;

2) Larger display screens and slightly larger form factor;

3) The periscope-style telephoto lens for the iPhone 16 Pro;

4) Faster new chip (A18 Pro), may be equipped with more neural engine cores to enhance ai ​​capabilities;

5) Larger capacity battery and metal casing to improve heat dissipation issues.

Morgan Stanley continues to consider apple as its preferred stock, believing that the product cycle of the new iPhone has a positive impact on the company's performance. The bank said that historically, on the day of the iPhone launch, apple's stock price usually performs slightly poorly, but it will perform slightly better in the following three months.

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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