It's shaping up to be a tough period for Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002304), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 6.9% short of analyst estimates at CN¥6.6b, and statutory earnings of CN¥1.26 per share missed forecasts by 9.2%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following the latest results, Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery's 20 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥34.9b in 2024. This would be a reasonable 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 2.2% to CN¥6.85. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥35.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥7.09 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 5.3% to CN¥107, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery analyst has a price target of CN¥154 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥66.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.