As of Monday, the 7-day rolling average of coal-fired power generation in Australia was less than 50%, partly due to severe weather hitting the southeastern part of the country, stimulating a significant increase in wind power generation.
According to the financial news app, as the energy transition accelerates and the strong winds attacking the southeastern part of Australia in the past few days have caused the coal-fired power generation of this coal-dependent country to fall below 50% of the country's overall power structure for the first time.
According to statistics from the data aggregator Open-NEM, as of Monday, coal-fired power generation accounted for 49.2% of Australia's total power generation, the first time that the weekly rolling average data for the country has fallen below half. During this period, Australia's wind farms generated about a quarter of its power resources.
The following charts show that coal resources are no longer the dominant power generation resource in Australia, with the country's average weekly benchmark coal-fired power generation falling below 50% for the first time.
It is understood that in recent years, Australia has rapidly shifted to solar and wind power to replace its many aging coal-fired power plants, making it a global test case for energy transition. This has also made it one of the most unstable and volatile electricity markets in the world, leading to unprecedented stagnation in spot power trading in June 2022.
Statistical data compiled by institutions shows that last year, Australia's coal-fired power generation dropped significantly from 87% in 2006 to 56%, which is also the highest coal-fired power generation level in Australia since the beginning of this century. In 2023, the total output of wind and solar energy in Australia is expected to account for approximately 31%. Open-NEM data covers the national electricity market in Australia, which provides power resources to over 80% of the country's population.
The demand for renewable energy such as solar energy in global data centers will be extremely strong for a long time. This is mainly due to the exponential growth of power demand brought about by the AI era that human society is gradually entering. In addition, under the global decarbonization trend, wind energy, solar energy, and other renewable energy sources may be the most important sources of power generation, even without any competition.
The increasing trend of power demand in AI data centers and the electrification trend driven by the increasing penetration rate of electric vehicles worldwide have jointly contributed to the increased demand for more power. The US Energy Information Administration recently projected that with the acceleration of global decarbonization, most of the supply will come from decarbonized sources of electricity.
According to BloombergNEF's forecast data, the total power generation capacity in the United States is expected to increase by 80% by 2035, mainly benefiting from the addition of nearly 1 terawatt of new solar and wind energy. BloombergNEF stated that utilities are competing to remove carbon emissions from the grid system while increasing new renewable energy generation capacity to meet the strong demand for power from factories, AI, and most of the electrification of the economy.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s main baseline forecast data, during the period from 2023 to 2028, the IEA estimates that the world will add up to 3,684 GW of installed capacity for renewable energy, which means that the global installed capacity of renewable energy will be about twice the current scale. According to the IEA's forecast trajectory, it is expected that by 2030, the installed capacity will reach at least around 9,000 GW, approximately 2.5 times the current level. The IEA predicts that by 2028, renewable energy generation will account for at least 42% of global electricity generation.
In contrast, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) 'Accelerated Case' statistics involve governments worldwide 'overcoming energy transition challenges and implementing existing policies faster'. In this most optimistic scenario (shown in red in the figure above), the growth rate of renewable energy will be higher. It is estimated that by 2028, the installed capacity will increase to 8,130 GW, making the world expected to achieve the goal of tripling renewable energy generation capacity by 2030.