Minsheng Securities: Performance differentiation in the second quarter of 2024 in the commercial retail sector, with sufficient performance resilience for overseas and beauty industry leaders.

美妆24H1 弱增长，电商平台重回 GMV 逻辑，头部国货美妆表现亮眼。

智通财经APP获悉，民生证券发布研报认为， 24H1 各零售业态销售分化，专卖店和百货店销售承压。跨境企业业绩表现分化，精品和品牌卖家增长更具韧性;百货商店 2Q24 环比回落，主要原因为线上分流、购物中心和奥特莱斯等业态分流。美妆24H1 弱增长，电商平台重回 GMV 逻辑，头部国货美妆表现亮眼。24H1 化妆品类商品零售额同比+1.0%，低于社零整体 3.7%的同比增速; Q2在“618”催化下，化妆品类商品零售额同比+3.0%，增速超社零整体。

商贸零售板块总览。 24H1，申银万国商贸零售板块总营收 6728.48 亿元，同比-5.1%，归母净利润合计 146.14 亿元，同比-18.6%; 24Q2，板块总营收3320.48 亿元，同比-5.2%，归母净利润合计为 60.86 亿元，同比-16.3%。 24H1，社会消费品零售总额 23.60 亿元，同比+3.7%。其中，化妆品类零售额 2168 亿元，同比+1.0%，金银珠宝类零售额 1725 亿元，同比+0.2%。

零售板块： 24H1 各零售业态销售分化，专卖店和百货店销售承压。 1)跨境电商：跨境企业业绩表现分化，精品和品牌卖家增长更具韧性。 2Q24，跨境电商板块营收分别为 247.53 亿元，同比+14.3%;板块归母净利为 17.60 亿元，同比+20.3%。其中 2Q24 赛维时代营收同比+55.52%，归母净利润同比+51.99%，乐歌股份营收同比+48.08%，归母净利润同比+74.02%。 2)百货板块：百货商店 2Q24 环比回落，主要原因为线上分流、购物中心和奥特莱斯等业态分流。 24H1，全国购物中心场均日客流 1.84 万人次，同比+4.0%，但客单价有所下滑。 2Q24 板块营收为 113.86 亿元，同比-66.2%;板块归母净利为 1.28 亿元，同比-92.4%。 3)超市板块： 2Q24 板块营收 279.28 亿元，同比-8.4%;归母净利为-6.85 亿元，亏损幅度收窄。

美妆： 24H1 弱增长，电商平台重回 GMV 逻辑，头部国货美妆表现亮眼。

24H1 化妆品类商品零售额同比+1.0%，低于社零整体 3.7%的同比增速; Q2在“618”催化下，化妆品类商品零售额同比+3.0%，增速超社零整体。平台方面，抖音渠道延续高增， 24H1 对美妆大盘的贡献约 48%，天猫销售增速在 5-6 月边际转好。业绩方面， 24H1 美护板块整体实现营收 238.77 亿元/yoy+5.98%，实现归母净利润 31.18 亿元/yoy+6.99%; 24Q2 整体实现营收128.77 亿元/yoy+5.20%，实现归母净利润 15.31 亿元/yoy-1.77%。 1)头部美妆品牌商： 24H1，润本股份、珀莱雅、丸美股份归母净利润同比+50.69%、+40.48%、 +35.09%，贝泰妮同比+7.50%;敷尔佳/华熙生物/上海家化/水羊股份/福瑞达归母净利同比-3.71%/-19.51%/-20.93%/-25.74%/-33.18%。 2)上游防晒原料龙头：科思股份 24H1/Q2 扣非归母净利同比+16.44%/+5.23%。3)中游代工企业：青松股份表现亮眼， 24H1/Q2 归母净利润实现扭亏为盈。

黄金珠宝：受金价高位影响，黄金饰品及投资类产品呈两极分化表现。 1)行业趋势：据中国黄金协会， 24H1，全国黄金消费量为 523.75 吨，同比-5.61%。其中，黄金首饰消费量为 270.02 吨，同比-26.68%;金条及金币 213.64 吨，同比+46.02%。 24H1，我国金银珠宝商品零售总额同比+0.20%，低于我国社会消费品零售总额增速 3.7%。 2)收入与业绩表现： 24H1，黄金珠宝板块整体营收为 997.37 亿元，同比+9.1%; 24Q2，总营收为 417.47 亿元，同比+7.1%。24H1，黄金珠宝板块归母净利润为 33.18 亿元，同比+1.3%; 24Q2，归母净利润为 13.47 亿元，同比-4.3%。 24Q2，菜百股份营收同比+41%，主要系贵金属投资类产品销售增幅明显; 曼卡龙营收同比+50%，主要系线上平台及线下渠道协同发力; 24Q2，老凤祥受益于金价上行，毛利率同比+1.57 pct。古法金代表企业老铺黄金随品牌力提升，收入及利润表现亮眼， 24H1，实现营收35.20 亿元，同比+148%，归母净利为 5.88 亿元，同比+199%。 3)中期分红预案：潮宏基拟派发现金红利 0.89 亿元，占 24H1 归母净利的 38.72%;周大生拟派发现金红利 3.26 亿元，占 24H1 归母净利的 54.14%。

医美：上游新材料及新产品收入与利润增速亮眼，下游机构盈利能力稳健。24H1，医美板块总营收 273.18 亿元，同比+5.9%; 24Q2，总营收 138.28 亿元，同比+4.2%。 24H1，医美板块归母净利润为 35.14 亿元，同比+22.8%;24Q2，归母净利润为 18.52 亿元，同比+24.3%。 24Q2，锦波生物营收为 3.77亿元，同比+100.4%，主要系重组胶原蛋白三类械注射剂推广顺利。 24H1，昊海生科同比+7.0%，玻尿酸收入 4.17 亿元，同比+51.30%，玻尿酸产品组合获得市场的广泛认可，第四代玻尿酸 “海魅月白”于 24 年 7 月获批。 24H1，江苏吴中医美生科收入 8011.96 万元，毛利率达 82.9%， AestheFill 于 24 年1 月 22 日取得 NMPA 的三类械证书， 4 月上市销售。

投资建议：

①美妆板块，推荐珀莱雅(603605.SH)、润本股份(301383.SZ)、巨子生物(02367)、上美股份(02146)、科思股份(300856.SZ)、水羊股份(300740.SZ)、丸美股份(603983.SH)、福瑞达(600223,SH)、嘉亨家化(300955.SZ)、华熙生物(688363.SH)、贝泰妮(300957.SZ)、上海家化(600315.SH)、青松股份(300132.SZ)。

②零售板块，推荐小商品城(600415.SH)、乐歌股份(300724.SZ)、华凯易佰(300592.SZ)、赛维时代(301387.SZ)、重庆百货(600729.SH);推荐明月镜片(301101.SZ)、博士眼镜(300622.SZ)，推荐全球零售商龙头名创优品(09896)，推荐专业母婴零售龙头孩子王(301078.SZ)。

③培育钻石板块，建议关注力量钻石(301071.SZ)、四方达(300179.SZ)、沃尔德(688028.SH)、惠丰钻石(839725.BJ)、黄河旋风(600172.SH)等。

④珠宝板块，推荐老凤祥(600612.SH)、老铺黄金(06181)、潮宏基(002345.SZ)、中国黄金(600916.SH)、周大生(002867.SZ)、菜百股份(605599.SH)、曼卡龙(300945.SZ)、周大福(01929)。

⑤医美板块，推荐爱美客(300896.SZ)、锦波生物(832982.BJ)、昊海生科(688366.SH)、朗姿股份(002612.SZ)、美丽田园(02373)，谨慎推荐江苏吴中(600200.SH)。

风险提示：新品推广不及预期，行业竞争格局恶化，终端需求不及预期等。

The beauty industry's 24H1 showed weak growth, with the e-commerce platform returning to the logic of GMV and outstanding performance of leading domestic beauty brands.

Zhitong Finance and Economics App learned that Minsheng Securities' research report stated that the 24H1 sales of various retail formats have differentiated, and specialty stores and department stores' sales are under pressure. The performance of cross-border enterprises is differentiated, with boutique and branded sellers showing more resilience; 2Q24 department stores' sales declined, mainly due to the diversion of online and shopping centers and outlet formats. The beauty industry's 24H1 showed weak growth, with the e-commerce platform returning to the logic of GMV and outstanding performance of leading domestic beauty brands. The retail sales of cosmetic products in 24H1 increased by 1.0% year-on-year, lower than the overall 3.7% year-on-year growth rate of social retail. Under the influence of the "618" promotion, the retail sales of cosmetic products in Q2 increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with a growth rate exceeding that of the overall social retail.

Overview of the commercial retail sector. In 24H1, the total revenue of the Shenyin Wanguo commercial retail sector was 672.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company was 14.614 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%; In 24Q2, the total revenue of the sector was 332.048 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%. In 24H1, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 2.36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Among them, the retail sales of cosmetic products were 216.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and the retail sales of gold and silver jewelry were 172.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%.

Retail sector: The sales of various retail formats differentiated in 24H1, with specialty stores and department stores' sales under pressure. 1) Cross-border e-commerce: The performance of cross-border enterprises is differentiated, with boutique and branded sellers showing more resilience. In 2Q24, the cross-border e-commerce sector's revenue was 24.753 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; the sector's net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%. Among them, in 2Q24, Saivishidian's revenue increased by 55.52% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 51.99% year-on-year; Loctek's revenue increased by 48.08% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 74.02% year-on-year. 2) Department store sector: Department stores' sales declined in 2Q24, mainly due to the diversion of online and shopping centers and outlet formats. In 24H1, the average daily customer flow in national shopping centers was 0.0184 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, but the transaction price has slightly declined. In 2Q24, the sector's revenue was 11.386 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.2%; the sector's net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.128 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 92.4%. 3) Supermarket sector: In 2Q24, the sector's revenue was 27.928 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was -0.685 billion yuan, with the loss narrowing.

The beauty industry showed weak growth in 24H1, with the e-commerce platform returning to the logic of GMV and outstanding performance of leading domestic beauty brands.

The retail sales of cosmetic products increased by 1.0% year-on-year in 24H1, lower than the overall 3.7% year-on-year growth rate of social retail; Under the influence of the '618' promotion, the retail sales of cosmetic products increased by 3.0% year-on-year in Q2, surpassing the overall social retail. In terms of platforms, the contribution of Douyin channel to the large-scale beauty market in 24H1 was approximately 48%, and Tmall's sales growth improved marginally in May and June. In terms of performance, the overall revenue of the beauty and skincare sector in 24H1 was 23.877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.98%, achieving a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.118 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.99%; In 24Q2, the overall revenue was 12.877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.20%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.77%. 1) Leading beauty brands: In 24H1, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Runben, Proya Cosmetics, and Marubi Co., Ltd. increased by +50.69%, +40.48%, and +35.09% year-on-year, respectively, while Betteroni's net profit increased by 7.50% year-on-year; Fulairda / Bloomage Biotechnology / Shanghai Jahwa / Syoung Group / Lushang Freda's net profit decreased by -3.71%, -19.51%, -20.93%, -25.74%, and -33.18% year-on-year. 2) Leading sun protection material producer: Nanjing Cosmos Chemical's non-GAAP net profit increased by +16.44%/+5.23% in 24H1/Q2. 3) Midstream processing enterprises: Fujian Green Pine showed strong performance, achieving a turnaround from loss to profit in 24H1/Q2.

Gold and jewelry: Under the influence of the high gold price, gold jewelry and investment products showed polarized performance. 1) Industry trends: According to the China Gold Association, the national gold consumer consumption in 24H1 was 523.75 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.61%. Among them, the gold jewelry consumption was 270.02 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26.68%; gold bars and coins were 213.64 tons, a year-on-year increase of 46.02%. In 24H1, the total retail sales of gold and silver jewelry in China increased by 0.20% year-on-year, lower than the 3.7% growth rate of total social retail. 2) Revenue and performance: In 24H1, the overall revenue of the gold and jewelry sector was 99.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%; In 24Q2, the total revenue was 41.747 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. In 24H1, the net profit attributable to the parent company of the gold and jewelry sector was 3.318 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%; In 24Q2, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.347 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. In 24Q2, Caibai's revenue increased by 41% year-on-year, mainly due to a significant increase in the sales of precious metal investment products; Manka Long's revenue increased by 50%, mainly due to the coordinated efforts of online platforms and offline channels; In 24Q2, Laofengxiang benefited from the rise in gold prices, with a year-on-year increase in gross margin of 1.57 pct. The leading brand Lao Pu Gold, with an enhanced brand image, achieved outstanding revenue and profit performance: In 24H1, it achieved revenue of 3.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 148%, and a net profit of 0.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 199%. 3) Mid-term dividend plan: Guangdong Chj Industry plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.089 billion yuan, accounting for 38.72% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 24H1; Chow Tai Seng plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.326 billion yuan, accounting for 54.14% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 24H1.

In the medical beauty industry, the upstream new materials and new product revenues and profits have shown a bright growth, and the downstream institutional profitability is steady. In the first half of 2024, the total revenue of the medical beauty sector was 27.318 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%; in the second quarter of 2024, the total revenue was 13.828 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. In the first half of 2024, the net profit attributable to the mother of the medical beauty sector was 3.514 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%; in the second quarter of 2024, the net profit attributable to the mother was 1.852 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. In the second quarter of 2024, Jinbo Biotechnology's revenue was 0.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.4%, mainly due to the smooth promotion of three types of collagen protein injection devices. In the first half of 2024, Haohai Biotechnology increased by 7.0% year-on-year, with hyaluronic acid revenue of 0.417 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.30%. The hyaluronic acid product combination has gained wide market recognition, and the fourth generation hyaluronic acid "Venus Moon White" was approved in July 2024. In the first half of 2024, Jiangsu Wuzhong Medical Beauty and Biotechnology's revenue was 80.1196 million yuan, with a gross margin of 82.9%. AestheFill obtained the NMPA type III medical device certificate on January 22, 2024 and was launched for sale in April.

Investment advice:

①In the cosmetics sector, recommend Proya (603605.SH), Runben Co., Ltd. (301383.SZ), ReYoung Pharmaceutical (02367), Sumei Co., Ltd. (02146), Nanjing Cosmos Chemical (300856.SZ), Syoung Group (300740.SZ), Marubi Biotechnology (603983.SH), Lushang Freda Pharmaceutical (600223,SH), Jiaheng Jahwa (300955.SZ), Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited (688363.SH), Be Titan Pharmaceutical (300957.SZ), Shanghai Jahwa United (600315.SH), Fujian Green Pine (300132.SZ).

②In the retail sector, recommend Zhejiang China Commodities City Group (600415.SH), Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp. (300724.SZ), Huakai Yibai Technology (300592.SZ), Saishi Times (301387.SZ), Chongqing Department Store (600729.SH); Recommend Mingyue Lens (301101.SZ), Doctorglasses Chain (300622.SZ), recommend global retail leader Miniso (09896), recommend professional maternity and baby retail leader Haier King (301078.SZ).

③In the cultivated diamond sector, it is recommended to pay attention to Sf Diamond Co., Ltd. (301071.SZ), SF Diamond Co., Ltd. (300179.SZ), Beijing Worldia Diamond Tools (688028.SH), Huifeng Diamond (839725.BJ), Henan Huanghe Whirlwind (600172.SH), etc.

④In the jewelry sector, recommend Lao Feng Xiang (600612.SH), Lao Pu Gold (06181), Guangdong Chj Industry (002345.SZ), China Gold (600916.SH), Chow Tai Seng Jewelry (002867.SZ), China National Cotton Reserves Corporation (605599.SH), Mancalon (300945.SZ), Chow Tai Fook (01929).

⑤In the medical beauty sector, recommend Imeik Technology Development (300896.SZ), Jinbo Biotechnology (832982.BJ), Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology (688366.SH), Lancy Co.,Ltd. (002612.SZ), Beautiful Countryside (02373), cautiously recommend Jiangsu Wuzhong Pharmaceutical Development (600200.SH).

Risk reminder: New product promotion not meeting expectations, deterioration of industry competition pattern, terminal demand falling short of expectations, etc.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

民生证券：24Q2商贸零售板块表现分化 出海、美妆龙头业绩韧性充足

Minsheng Securities: Performance differentiation in the second quarter of 2024 in the commercial retail sector, with sufficient performance resilience for overseas and beauty industry leaders.

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民生证券：24Q2商贸零售板块表现分化出海、美妆龙头业绩韧性充足