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- 纽交所(NYSE)上的Sonic Automotive, Inc.(索尼克汽车)的内在价值一览
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Sonic Automotive, Inc. (NYSE:SAH)
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Sonic Automotive, Inc. (NYSE:SAH)
Key Insights
- The projected fair value for Sonic Automotive is US$50.94 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Sonic Automotive's US$60.28 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
- Our fair value estimate is 17% lower than Sonic Automotive's analyst price target of US$61.43
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Sonic Automotive, Inc. (NYSE:SAH) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
What's The Estimated Valuation?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$131.1m | US$69.9m | US$108.3m | US$150.5m | US$160.5m | US$169.2m | US$176.8m | US$183.8m | US$190.2m | US$196.3m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 6.65% | Est @ 5.40% | Est @ 4.53% | Est @ 3.92% | Est @ 3.50% | Est @ 3.20% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 11% | US$118 | US$57.0 | US$79.7 | US$100 | US$96.4 | US$91.7 | US$86.6 | US$81.3 | US$75.9 | US$70.8 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$858m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$196m× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (11%– 2.5%) = US$2.4b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.4b÷ ( 1 + 11%)10= US$880m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.7b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$60.3, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sonic Automotive as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Sonic Automotive
- Debt is well covered by .
- Balance sheet summary for SAH.
- Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Specialty Retail market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
- Is SAH well equipped to handle threats?
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Sonic Automotive, we've compiled three essential elements you should consider:
- Risks: Take risks, for example - Sonic Automotive has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does SAH's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
主要见解
- 基于2阶段自由现金流对股东权益的预测,索尼克汽车的预期公平价值为50.94美元
- 索尼克汽车的60.28美元股价表明其与预估公平价值处于相似水平
- 我们的公平价值估计比索尼克汽车分析师的61.43美元目标价低17%
今天,我们将通过预测其未来现金流并将其贴现到现值来估算索尼克汽车公司(纽交所:SAH)的内在价值的一种方法。 一种实现这一目标的方式是采用贴现现金流量(DCF)模型。 在您认为自己无法理解之前,请继续阅读! 实际上远不像您想象的那么复杂。
公司的估值可以用很多种方式来估算,因此我们指出DCF并不适用于每种情况。任何对内在价值想要了解更多的人都应该阅读简单华尔街分析模型的报告。
预估估值是多少?
我们使用的是两阶段模型,也就是说我们有两个不同的增长期。一般来说,第一阶段的增长率更高,第二阶段则是低增长阶段。首先,我们需要估算未来十年的现金流。我们尽可能使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们从上次估计或报告值的上一个自由现金流(FCF)进行推算。我们假设自由现金流缩减的公司将减缓其缩减速度,而增长自由现金流的公司将在此期间看到其增长速度放缓。我们这样做是为了反映增长趋势在早期年份比后期年份更趋于缓慢。
DCF的核心概念是未来的每一美元都比现在的每一美元更不值钱,因此我们将这些未来的现金流贴现到当今的价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
杠杆自由现金流 ($, 百万) | 1.311亿美元 | US$100 | 1.083亿美元。 | US$91.7 | 160.5百万美元 | 1.692亿美元 | 1.768亿美元 | US$70.8 | ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) | 1.963亿美元。 |
增长率估计来源 | 分析师x2 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | 以6.65%的速度增长 | 估值增长率为5.40% | 以4.53%的速度估算 | 预估3.92%后的 | 预计@ 3.50% | 预计@3.20% |
现值(以百万美元计)按11%贴现 | 118美元 | 57.0美元 | 100美元 | 91.7美元 | 8.66亿美元 | 8130万美元 | 75.9美元 | 70.8美元 |
("Est" = Simply Wall St 估计的自由现金流增长率)
重要假设
- 债务得到充分覆盖。
- 债务利息支付能力不太好。
- 与专业零售市场前25%支付股息股息低相比。
- 预计未来3年的年度收益将增长。
- 基于预估的公平市盈率比值,以P/E比值为基础的价值良好。
- 运营现金流无法很好地覆盖债务。
- 虽然发放股息,但公司并没有自由现金流。
- 预计年度收益增长速度将慢于美国市场。
展望未来:
- 其他高质量选择:你喜欢一个好的多面手吗?浏览我们的高质量股票交互列表,了解还有哪些你可能错过的好东西!
PS. Simply Wall St每天都会更新其对每只美国股票的折现现金流计算,因此,如果你想找到其他股票的内在价值,只需在此搜索即可。
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Australia Limited提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Moomoo Securities Australia Limited, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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