The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
What Is CF Industries Holdings's Net Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that CF Industries Holdings had US$2.97b in debt in June 2024; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.82b, its net debt is less, at about US$1.15b.
How Healthy Is CF Industries Holdings' Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that CF Industries Holdings had liabilities of US$596.0m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$5.08b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.82b as well as receivables valued at US$531.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$3.32b.
This deficit isn't so bad because CF Industries Holdings is worth a massive US$15.0b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
CF Industries Holdings has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.45. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 828 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for CF Industries Holdings if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 54% cut to EBIT over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if CF Industries Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, CF Industries Holdings generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 80% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
CF Industries Holdings's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But the stark truth is that we are concerned by its EBIT growth rate. All these things considered, it appears that CF Industries Holdings can comfortably handle its current debt levels. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for CF Industries Holdings (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.