The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that since 23H2, the post-epidemic consumption pulse has subsided, 24Q2 consumption has further weakened, and domestic demand still needs to be boosted. The reason for poor travel and liquor consumption during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday is that residents' income expectations are poor, and the other is a negative wealth effect due to falling asset prices such as real estate. At the industry level, price fluctuations for high-end wine increased at the end of the 24Q2 season, and the price trend of core single products of other listed wine companies was rising steadily, mainly because in the off-season, most wine companies controlled goods and stabilized prices first, so as to better save energy for the Q3 peak season. The 24H1 industry's overall apparent repayment growth rate > revenue growth rate. The industry excluded Maowu revenue growth rate > apparent repayment growth rate > revenue growth rate, showing that most wine companies are more cautious about channel repayment intentions, and dealer customers have begun to take the initiative to leave the warehouse.

Macroscopic wave-like recovery, consumption is under phased pressure. The total revenue of the 2024H1 liquor sector increased 14.09% year on year, net profit to the mother increased 13.87% year on year, and the net profit after deducting non-net profit increased 14.16% year on year; the total revenue of the 24Q2 liquor sector increased 11.98% year on year, net profit due to mother increased 10.64% year on year, and net profit without return to mother increased 10.7% year on year. From a macro perspective, the post-epidemic consumption pulse has subsided since 23H2, consumption weakened further in 24Q2, and domestic demand still needs to be boosted. The year-on-year growth rate of 24Q2 is zero compared to Q1. In particular, the decline in consumption has intensified since May. Travel and liquor consumption during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday are poor. 1 is that residents' income expectations are poor, and 2 is a negative wealth effect due to falling asset prices such as real estate. Referring to McKinsey's 2024 Consumer Trend Research Report, young and middle-aged people aged 26 to 41 are the main consumer group, and consumer confidence is more pessimistic. Furthermore, the lengthening of the cycle has also increased consumers' concerns about future uncertainty and further intensified their saving tendencies. At the industry level, price fluctuations for high-end wine increased at the end of the 24Q2 season, and the price trend of core single products of other listed wine companies was rising steadily, mainly because in the off-season, most wine companies controlled goods and stabilized prices first, so as to better save energy for the Q3 peak season. High-end price belt Maowu batch price fluctuations intensified at the end of the Q2 season, reflecting weak channel confidence and a relatively cautious outlook for industry demand; sub-high-end price band: Prioritizing price maintenance became a consensus for wine companies to care for long-term healthy development, and shipping controls for wine companies in the Q2 off-season were generally strengthened to actively absorb inventory and prevent risks.

High-end wine has taken the lead, sub-high-end wine has generally decelerated, and the resilience of real estate wine continues. The total revenue of the 24Q2 liquor sector also increased by 11.98%, net profit to mother increased 10.64%, and the 24Q2 growth rate slowed. 1 was a weakening off-season demand, 2 was a base gap (23Q2 banquets made up significantly), and 3 was that wine companies actively regulated the pace of operation over the long term. Among them, high-end and sub-high-end liquor companies with a high product structure and relatively large commercial demand showed pressure to redeem revenue, and slowing down and improving quality began to become a common choice; regional wine companies with low price bands (100 to 300 yuan) and mainly popular demand continued their sales and revenue resilience. The 24H1 industry's overall apparent repayment growth rate > revenue growth rate, industry - excluding Maowu revenue growth rate > apparent repayment growth rate > revenue growth rate, shows that most wine companies are more cautious about channel repayment intentions, and dealer customers have begun to take the initiative to withdraw money. On the payback side, with the exception of Maotai, Wuliangye, and Elite's 24Q2 growth rate, all other wine companies are under pressure; on the collection side, the 24Q2 revenue growth rate accelerated mainly due to Maowu's contribution. Other wine companies' Q2 revenue growth rates are mostly under pressure, and downward pressure on demand is gradually being transmitted to leading wine companies' reports. By sector, high-end wine companies' Q2 revenue is in line with expectations, focusing on rational development and active regulation of the pace; sub-high-end wine companies are under pressure and increasing differentiation, and demand is yet to be repaired; the resilience of real estate wine, Anhui wine and Soviet wine, continues, and the flexibility of Jijiu continues to be unleashed

Profit side: Gross margin increased slightly, and the trend of narrowing net profit continued. The gross profit margin of the 24Q2 liquor sector was 82.16%, +0.46pct year on year. High-end wine, sub-high-end wine, and regional wine were +0.58pct, -3.13pct, and +0.76pct, respectively. In terms of rates, the sales rate for the 24q2 liquor sector was +0.77pct to 11.89% year over year; the management rate fell 0.48pct to 5.11% year over year. The sales expense ratio increased slightly over the same period last year. Mainly, most wine companies strengthened cost control, sought efficiency from the management side, maintained contraction in channel promotion expenses, and used digital means to strengthen cost implementation management. In terms of profit growth rate, 24Q2 high-end (13.17%) > real estate wine (8.68%) > sub-high-end (-6.97%). From the perspective of profit elasticity, the overall profit elasticity of wine companies declined significantly year-on-year in 24Q2, but Wuliangye and Laobaijiu bucked the trend.

Investment advice: Dongwu Securities believes that the main line of the 2024 food and beverage investment strategy is undervaluation, high-quality, deterministic growth+high dividend ratio. The secondary line is management improvement, focusing on the continuous increase in stability policies and changes in risk appetite. Under a neutral assumption, 2024 2022 volatility still exists, and the low-level layout is more rational. Liquor is optimistic about strong fundamentals and share growth targets in the medium to long term, and is also optimistic about dividend rate varieties supported by cash flow. Expectations before the peak season in the short-term layout almost hide their recognition of long-term value. We recommend Shanxi Fenjiu, Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Yingjiao, Gujing Gongjiao, Gujing Gongjiao, Laobaijiao, etc. We recommend paying attention to: Zhenjiu Li Du, Jinshiyuan.

We recommend Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH), Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ), Yingjia Gongjiu (603198.SH), Gujing Gongjiu (000596.SZ), Laobai Dry Liquor (), etc. We recommend paying attention to Zhenjiu Li Du (06979), and Jinshiyuan (). 600559.SH 603369.SH

Risk warning: Consumption recovery falls short of expectations, and industry competition increases risk.