大摩预计，明年1个月香港银行同业拆息(HIBOR)将降至2.75%，最优惠利率下的实际按揭利率(P-1.75%)将降至3.25%。该行相信，对比零售及写字楼，香港的住宅市场将更受惠于美国减息，预计明年香港住宅楼价将反弹5%，而今年则会下跌8%，即较高位下跌三成。该行估计，香港银行同业拆息每下跌100个基点，可带动香港地产发展商的平均盈利增加5%。Hong Kong real estate stocks generally rose. As of press release, Jiulong Cang Real Estate (01997) rose 3.71% to HK$22.35; Lingzhan Real Estate Fund (00823) rose 3.34% to HK$37.1.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Hong Kong real estate stocks generally rose. As of press release, Jiulongchang Real Estate (01997) rose 3.71% to HK$22.35; Lingzhan Real Estate Fund (00823) rose 3.34% to HK$37.1; Swire Properties (01972) rose 2.93% to HK$14.04; Changshi Group (01113) rose 2.29% to HK$31.3; New World Development (00017) rose 1.97% to HK$6.74.
According to the news, there were 7.673 million JoLTS job vacancies in the US in July, lower than the expected 8.1 million people. The previous value was 8.184 million, the lowest level since 2021. The possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September rose to 44%. Morgan Stanley released a research report saying that the market expects the US to cut interest rates, which is a favorable factor for Hong Kong real estate developers. Currently, real estate companies' valuations are at their lowest level in history, while providing a sustainable high dividend rate.
Dama expects the Hong Kong Interbank Interest Rate (HIBOR) to drop to 2.75% in 1 month next year, and the actual mortgage rate (P -1.75%) under the best lending rate will drop to 3.25%. The bank believes that compared to retail and office buildings, Hong Kong's housing market will benefit more from US interest rate cuts. It is expected that residential property prices in Hong Kong will rebound by 5% next year, while this year they will fall 8%, or 30% from a higher level. The bank estimates that every 100 basis points of decline in the Hong Kong interbank interest rate can drive the average profit of Hong Kong real estate developers to increase by 5%.
