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後場に注目すべき3つのポイント~売り一巡後は高田日銀審議委員の発言で一時切り返す場面も

Three points to watch in the afternoon session~ After a round of selling, there may be a temporary rebound in the market due to comments from BoJ Board Member Takada.

Fisco Japan ·  Sep 4 23:24

In the afternoon of the 5th's trading, the following 3 points are worth noting.

- The Nikkei average fell for the third consecutive day, but temporarily rebounded due to the comments of Bank of Japan Policy Board member Takada after the selling subsided.

- The dollar-yen rate has been sluggish, prompting buying on the basis of reasonable prices.

- First Retail Co., Ltd. <9983> was the top contributor to the decline, followed by Tokyo Electron Ltd. <8035>.

■ The Nikkei average fell for the third consecutive day, but temporarily rebounded due to the comments of Bank of Japan Policy Board member Takada after the selling subsided.

The Nikkei Average fell for the third consecutive day. It ended the morning trading at 36,917.44 yen, down 130.17 yen (-0.35%) from the previous day, with an estimated trading volume of 7.07 billion shares.

The U.S. stock market was mixed on the 4th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at $40,974.97, up $38.04 (0.09%), the Nasdaq closed at 17,084.30, down 52.00 points (-0.30%), and the S&P 500 closed at 5,520.07, down 8.86 points (-0.16%). The semiconductor sector declined, and after the opening, it continued to decline. concerns about a significant interest rate cut as July JOLT job openings decreased more than expected and there was speculation of a significant interest rate cut. However, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta mentioned the risk of labor market turmoil in an essay and urged an early interest rate cut. In addition, the Beige Book, published by the Federal Reserve Board, showed a gradual slowdown in the economy, and there was caution ahead of the release of employment statistics, which limited upside. The market closed mixed.

Although U.S. stocks were mixed, the Tokyo market started trading with selling pressure centered on major stocks as the exchange rate strengthened to the 143 yen range and the yen strengthened against the dollar. The Nikkei Average expanded its decline to the level since August 14th, reaching 36,359.23 yen, but after the sell-off subsided, buying believed to be from pension funds entered major stocks, narrowing the decline. The Nikkei Average temporarily rebounded and reached the 37,000 yen level.

In the Nikkei Average adopted stocks, First Retail <9983> was sold as adjustments to the Nikkei Average weight were being considered. The stock prices of semiconductor stocks, such as Renesas Electronics <6723>, Laser Tech <6920>, Tokyo Electron <8035>, and Advantest <6857>, also declined. In addition, Chugai Pharmaceutical <4519>, Sharp <6753>, Yokogawa Electric <6841>, Fanuc <6954>, etc. were sold.

On the other hand, Asahi Group HD <2502> was bought based on positive reports from securities companies, and Mitsubishi Warehouse <9301>, GS Yuasa <6674>, and Hitachi Zosen <7004> saw an increase in their gains from the opening. In addition, Kao <4452>, Taisei Construction <1801>, Toray <3402>, and Mitsubishi Chemical <4188> rebounded.

In terms of industry, insurance, pharmaceuticals, retail trade, precision instruments, and electric appliances declined, while warehousing and transportation-related industries, rubber products, securities and commodity futures trading, land transportation, and textiles & apparels rose.

During a financial and economic forum held in Ishikawa Prefecture in the morning, Takada So Japan Bank's deliberation committee member, in relation to the BOJ's decision to decrease government bond purchases, pointed out that "The BOJ's balance sheet size is large, and it is predicted that the balance sheet will continue to shrink significantly over a considerable period. It is difficult to discuss how much the final government bond holding balance and balance sheet should be reduced at this point." He also made certain considerations to the market by stating, "For the time being, we will closely monitor the fluctuations in stocks and exchange rates," leading to a retreat of excessive pessimism in the stock and foreign exchange markets. With the release of US employment-related economic indicators tonight, there is a possibility of a stronger yen in the foreign exchange market, but with speculations about pension funds buying, it is anticipated that the afternoon Nikkei average will be stagnant around the 37,000 yen level.

The USD/JPY has leveled off its decline and is being bought back due to its reasonable value.

In the Tokyo market on the morning of the 5th, the USD/JPY has leveled off its decline. The previous day's selling of the dollar in the overseas market continued, causing the rate to drop from 143.90 yen to 143.19 yen. However, the dollar is likely to be bought back due to its reasonable value. Additionally, the Nikkei Average has reduced its decline, weakening the yen buying for risk aversion.

The trading ranges so far are as follows: USD/JPY ranges from 143.19 yen to 143.90 yen, EUR/JPY ranges from 158.70 yen to 159.45 yen, and EUR/USD ranges from 1.1076 dollars to 1.1086 dollars.

Check stocks for the afternoon session

- Ishin <143A>, Anap <3189>, and 6 other stocks are at the daily limit-up.

*Includes temporary stopper (indicated price)

- First Retail <9983> is the top contributor to the decline, and Tokyo Electron <8035> is in second place.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

- On Sundays in July, the monthly labor statistics show that the total cash earnings increased by +3.6% compared to the previous year (forecast: +2.9%, June: +4.5%).

- Australia's trade balance in July: +6.009 billion Australian dollars (forecast: +5 billion Australian dollars, June: +5.425 billion Australian dollars ← +5.589 billion Australian dollars).

[Important Person's Remarks]

- Daily US SF Fed President

"Inflation is declining, the economy is slowing down, and interest rates should be lowered."

"I don't know about the rate cut in September. We need further data such as employment statistics."

- Takada BOJ Policy Board Member

"Even after the rate hike, the accommodative financial environment continues."

"For the time being, we need to monitor the movements of stocks and exchange rates and assess their impact."

"If positive corporate actions continue, further adjustments to the degree of accommodation will be necessary."

Not applicable.

- 14:45 Switzerland August unemployment rate (expectation: 2.4%, July: 2.3%)

- 15:00 Germany July manufacturing orders (month-on-month expectation: -1.7%, June: +3.9%)

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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