2024H1有色金属板块实现营业收入17137亿元，同比增长2.10%;归母净利润692.78亿元，同比下降3.32%;2024Q2实现营业收入9326亿元，同比增长7.50%;归母净利润436.13亿元，同比增长27.01%。盈利能力方面，2024H1有色金属板块销售毛利率/净利率分别为11.37%/5.32%，分别同比+1.14/-0.17pct。现金流方面，2024H1有色金属板块经营性现金净流量为829.73亿元，同比下降12.25%;2024Q2经营性现金净流量为698.16亿元，同比下降12.47%，环比提高430.63%。In 2024, there are continuous disturbances in the copper supply side, and at the same time, the decline in resource grade and insufficient long-term mineral capital expenditure are constraints on medium- to long-term supply, coupled with the expectation of a strengthened rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to catalyze a new round of copper price increase cycle.
According to the Jingtong Finance APP, Guolian Securities released a research report stating that in the first half of 2024, the nonferrous metals sector achieved operating income of 1713.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.10%; net income attributable to the parent company was 43.613 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 27.01%. The fundamentals of the industrial metals sector are generally improving, and performance in the first half of 2024 has been strengthened. In 2024, there are continuous disturbances in the copper supply side, and at the same time, the decline in resource grade and insufficient long-term mineral capital expenditure are constraints on medium- to long-term supply, coupled with the expectation of a strengthened rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to catalyze a new round of copper price increase cycle, driving improvements in the profitability of copper mining companies. In addition, benefiting from the strong gold and silver prices, companies in the precious metals sector have significantly improved their performance.
The nonferrous metals sector's Q2 performance improved compared to the previous quarter, optimizing operational quality.
According to the Jingtong Finance APP, in the first half of 2024, the nonferrous metals sector achieved operating income of 1713.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.10%; net income attributable to the parent company was 69.278 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.32%; in the second quarter of 2024, operating income reached 932.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.50%; net income attributable to the parent company was 43.613 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 27.01%. In terms of profitability, the nonferrous metals sector's gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2024 were 11.37% and 5.32%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +1.14/-0.17 percent. In terms of cash flow, the operating net cash flow for the nonferrous metals sector in the first half of 2024 was 82.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.25%; in the second quarter of 2024, the operating net cash flow was 69.816 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.47%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 430.63%.
Industrial metals: The fundamentals are generally improving, and performance in the first half of 2024 has been strengthened.
According to the Jingtong Finance APP, in the first half of 2024, the industrial metals sector achieved operating income of 1342.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.17%; net income attributable to the parent company was 57.134 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 49.81%. The gross margin and net margin for the industrial metals sector in the first half of 2024 were 10.53% and 5.25%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 3.11/1.69 percent. In 2024, there are continuous disturbances in the copper supply side, and at the same time, the decline in resource grade and insufficient long-term mineral capital expenditure are constraints on medium- to long-term supply, coupled with the expectation of a strengthened rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to catalyze a new round of copper price increase cycle, driving improvements in the profitability of copper mining companies and the transfer of aluminum smelting profits upstream to alumina refining, which has significantly improved the profitability of aluminum smelting companies with high alumina self-sufficiency in the first half of 2024.
Precious metals: Significant growth in performance due to the rise in gold prices.
Benefiting from the strong performance of gold and silver prices, the performance of the precious metals sector companies has significantly improved. In H1 2024, the precious metals sector achieved revenue of 148.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.40%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.24%. In 2024, as inflationary pressure gradually eases, overseas developed economies represented by the Federal Reserve are expected to start an interest rate cut cycle, and ample liquidity is expected to favor gold. At the same time, the rising global geopolitical risks and intensified big power games, as well as major central banks continuously increasing their gold reserves, are all expected to drive the center of gold prices upward. Silver resonates with both financial and commodity attributes. In the context of an expanding supply-demand gap for silver, the price has greater upward elasticity.
Small metals: Improved performance in Q2 2024.
In H1 2024, the small metals sector achieved revenue of 96.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.70%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.43%. In Q2 2024, the small metals sector achieved revenue of 53.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.71% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.02%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.591 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.00% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 145.08%. Tungsten supply is relatively rigid, catalyzing a continuous rise in tungsten prices. In H1 2024, the average price of 65% black tungsten concentrates was 0.1348 million yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. Although the price of molybdenum has declined year-on-year, it still remains relatively high. In H1 2024, the price of 45% molybdenum concentrates at the factory was 3484 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%.
Investment advice: Continuously optimistic about the investment opportunities in the nonferrous metals sector.
Guolian Securities continues to be bullish on investment opportunities in the nonferrous metals sector, maintaining an 'outperforming the market' rating for the industry. The precious metals sector recommends Zhongjin Gold Corp., Ltd (600489.SH), Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd (000975.SZ), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH), etc. The industrial metals copper sector recommends Zijin Mining Group (601899.SH), CMOC Group Limited (03993,603993.SH), Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group (000630.SZ), JCHX Mining Management (603979.SH). The aluminum sector recommends Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SH) with a high self-sufficiency rate of alumina, Chinahongqiao (01378), Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd (000807.SZ) with significant advantages in green aluminum. The tin sector recommends Inner Mongolia Xingye Silver&Tin Mining (000426.SZ) with an increasing ore production volume and Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal (600311.SH).
Risk Warning: Macro-economic environmental risks; unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve; geopolitical and policy risks; lower-than-expected downstream demand.