Currie在高盛带领团队研究大宗商品近30年，如今担任凯雷集团能源团队的首席战略官。前几个月，Currie极力看涨铜价，他曾在5月中旬表示：“铜是我30年职业生涯中见过的最具吸引力的交易。”Currie said in mid-May that copper was the most attractive trade he had seen in his 30-year career, but three and a half months later, the copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell below $9,000 per ton. Currie believes that the current decline in copper prices is mainly due to the simultaneous increase in copper inventories in Asia and copper exports from China.
The once popular but now declining copper, can it rise again? Currie says the key is in China.
On Tuesday, September 3, senior commodity analyst Jeff Currie said that he believes the lower limit for copper price is $8500, and the upper limit is $9500. The key to whether copper prices can break through this range lies in China's policies. Currently, the decline in copper prices is mainly due to the simultaneous surge in Asian copper inventories and Chinese copper exports.
Currie led the research team on commodities at Goldman Sachs for nearly 30 years and now serves as the Chief Strategic Officer of the Energy team at The Carlyle Group. A few months ago, Currie was very bullish on copper prices. In mid-May, he said, 'Copper is the most attractive trade I've seen in my 30-year career.'
Why was Currie so supportive of copper at that time? He explained the reasons on Bloomberg TV.
At that time, copper prices reached a record $11,104.5 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME), and Currie was confident that copper prices would continue to rise. He believed that the current focus on eco-friendly, military, and AI all require copper. Particularly the development of AI is heavily reliant on energy, and copper is an indispensable material for building electrical grids.
"Under the circumstances of a significant increase in demand and weak supply, copper prices have the potential for a significant rise. Because we have not invested enough in copper supply, I believe copper has the most bullish potential among commodities. Many market participants have expressed that this is the most confidence-inspiring trade they've experienced."
However, when Currie made his bullish copper price forecast in mid-May, he coincidentally hit the peak of copper prices.
Three and a half months later, the price of copper on the London Metal Exchange fell below $9,000 per ton. Currie stated on this Tuesday's Bloomberg TV show that the sharp increase in copper inventories in Asia is one of the key reasons for the substantial decline in copper prices.
However, Currie still believes that copper prices will not continue to fall endlessly, but due to weak demand, there is limited upward potential for copper prices. The future trend of copper prices will mainly depend on the impact of China's policies.
At the same time, earlier this week, Goldman Sachs exited its long call position on copper and cut its copper price forecast for 2025 by nearly $5,000. This significant shift occurred against the backdrop of a rare surge in refined copper exports from China. Goldman Sachs analysts Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven informed their clients:
"Copper price increase delayed. In the copper market, we observe significant price elasticity of supply and demand this summer. As a result, the substantial reduction in copper inventories that we expected may be much later than we previously anticipated."
