Although the silicon material products have shown signs of recovery, their production has reached a new low in this stage, and the overall order volume this week is relatively average. Currently, the polysilicon enterprises have a relatively consistent expectation of price increase, resulting in a general increase in downstream and futures market quotations. However, the trading volume this week is limited, resulting in only a slight increase in the average market price. Several analysts have indicated that the increase in silicon material is limited and difficult to sustain, and the subsequent price is expected to hover at the bottom.
On September 4th, the Silicon Industry Sub-branch announced the latest transaction prices for solar-grade polysilicon, and this week, the prices of silicon materials have increased across the board.
Among them, the transaction price range for n-type rod-like silicon is 0.039-0.044 million yuan/ton, up 0.73% from the previous month; the transaction price range for single crystal dense material is 0.035-0.039 million yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 0.0345 million yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the previous month; the transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is 0.0365-0.0375 million yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 0.0373 million yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.63%.
What impact does it have on silicon material and silicon wafer manufacturers?
Regarding the news that silicon material prices have increased across the board this week, on September 5th, the reporter of the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily called the securities office of Tongwei Co., Ltd. The relevant staff stated, 'The price statistics of the Silicon Industry Sub-branch are based on the average order price of several companies listed, including Tongwei's subsidiary.'
It is reported that Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., one of the participating companies in the price statistics of the Silicon Industry Sub-branch, is a holding subsidiary of Tongwei Co., Ltd.
A representative from Longi Green Energy stated to the reporter of the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, 'For silicon materials, the company's procurement contracts are generally long-term, and the specific purchase price will fluctuate based on market prices.' A staff member from Daquan Energy told the reporter, 'The company's product sales price is market-driven.'
It is worth noting that prior to the overall price increase of silicon materials, on August 27th, both Longi Green Energy and TCL Zhonghuan announced an increase in silicon wafer prices. Silicon materials are upstream of silicon wafers. Will the increase in the average transaction price of silicon materials affect the profitability of silicon wafers?
Several listed companies have stated to reporters from the Star Daily that they have not yet seen specific impacts.
A representative from Tongwei Co., Ltd. said, "There have been price increases for silicon wafers before, which has increased costs and sales for companies in the silicon wafer sector. Therefore, it is difficult to determine the overall profit situation." TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology also stated to reporters from the Star Daily, "The specific impact is unclear at the moment."
A representative from Longi Green Energy Technology stated, "It is currently difficult to determine whether changes in silicon material prices will be promptly reflected in the cost of silicon wafer products." However, the company's management team mentioned during the semi-annual performance briefing, "Considering that the industry is generally in a situation of cash cost losses, the price of silicon wafers will only increase in the future and will not decrease."
An industry insider stated to reporters from the Star Daily, "Fluctuations in the price of silicon materials directly affect the production cost of silicon wafers, thereby compressing the profit space for silicon wafers. Against the backdrop of rising silicon material prices, if silicon wafer companies want to maintain their original profit levels, they will inevitably have to increase the price of silicon wafers, but this may face challenges from market demand and intensified competition."
The combination of low supply and rising silicon wafer prices supports the adjustment of silicon material prices.
Although there are signs of a rebound in silicon material production, its output has reached a new low in this stage. As of now, there are still 14 companies in maintenance or load reduction. According to statistics from the market analysis institution Antaike, the domestic supply of polycrystalline silicon in August was about 0.1297 million tons, a decrease of 6.01% compared to the previous month. It is expected that the supply of polycrystalline silicon in September will remain at around 0.135 million tons.
In terms of the number of orders, companies have gradually started a new round of signing contracts this week. Except for a few first-tier companies with a certain number of orders, most of the other companies are mainly executing pre-existing orders, resulting in a generally average number of orders.
Regarding production capacity, the aforementioned representative from Tongwei Co., Ltd. also told reporters from the Star Daily, "Currently, the production capacity of silicon materials is still relatively slow, while other links will be adjusted based on market dynamics." A representative from CECEP Energy disclosed that the company's production capacity is expected to be between 0.043 million tons and 0.046 million tons in the third quarter of this year, with a total annual output expectation of between 0.21 million tons and 0.22 million tons.
According to Antai Technology's research, the main support for the rise in silicon material prices has two aspects: on the one hand, silicon material companies underwent concentrated maintenance and load reduction in August, resulting in the lowest supply in this year. In September, some companies have plans to increase production or resume production, so in the short term, the pressure on supply and demand is at a minimum, and silicon material companies have relatively sufficient willingness to raise prices. On the other hand, the price increase in the downstream silicon wafer sector has acceptable tolerance for small adjustments to raw material prices.
In summary, at present, polysilicon companies have relatively consistent expectations of price increases, leading to widespread increases in quotations for downstream and forward spot trading. However, the trading volume this week is limited, resulting in only a slight increase in the average market price.
Regarding the future trend of silicon material prices, personnel from Daquan Energy told a reporter from the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" that the price needs to be comprehensively judged based on future production scheduling and inventory consumption.
In the view of Xie Bowen, an analyst at Xingye Research, the recent rebound in the price of N-type silicon materials has been limited and difficult to sustain, and it is expected that the price will continue to hover at the bottom.
Another industry insider told reporters, "Considering the temporary new low in silicon material production and the price increase, the prices of products in various links of the photovoltaic industry chain may show an upward trend in the short term, including silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules. However, in the long term, considering technological progress, production capacity, and market competition, the prices of photovoltaic products may tend to stabilize.
