NAB Revises Commodity Forecasts
NAB Revises Commodity Forecasts
With iron ore prices falling to near two-year lows on Thursday, the National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) has updated its forecasts for commodity prices for the next year and beyond. Apart from gold, the outlook is particularly bleak, especially for iron ore and coking coal companies.
随着周四铁矿石价格跌至近两年低点，澳大利亚国家银行（ASX：NAB）已更新了明年及以后商品价格的预测。除了黄金，前景特别黯淡，尤其是对于铁矿石和焦煤公司。
October iron ore futures fell to just over US$90 a tonne on the SGX platform on Thursday, marking an 11% decline in the past week and a 10% drop in the first four trading sessions of September.
10月铁矿石期货周四在SGX平台上跌至略高于每吨90美元，标志着过去一周下跌11％，并在9月的前四个交易日下跌了10％。
The September price, which is now the spot month, was trading at just over US$91 a tonne.
现货月份的九月价格现在交易价略高于每吨91美元。
The decline followed a brief rebound above US$100 a tonne in late August. Weak data from China and continuing weakness in the pricing of key products like rebar and coil are contributing to the malaise, along with stock levels at major ports reaching 22-month highs.
这一下滑发生在8月下旬铁矿石价格短暂反弹超过每吨100美元之后。中国的数据疲弱和钢筋和卷材等关键产品的价格持续疲软，以及主要港口的库存水平达到22个月以来的最高点，都导致了这种低迷。
In its updated commodity outlook, NAB stated, "At a high level, we see the downward trend for commodity prices continuing."
在其更新的商品展望中，NAB表示：“从宏观层面上，我们预计商品价格的下行趋势将继续下去。”
"Global economic conditions remain broadly unfavorable for commodity demand. China—the largest consumer of most commodities—continues to exhibit weak domestic demand, and an increasing number of countries are imposing trade measures in response to its export surge."
“全球经济条件对商品需求仍然普遍不利。中国——大多数商品的最大消费国——继续表现出疲弱的国内需求，并且越来越多的国家针对其出口激增采取贸易措施。”
In US dollar terms, NAB reported that its Non-rural Commodity Price Index fell by approximately 7.0% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June. The bank forecasts a further near 55% drop in the current third quarter, "led by iron ore and metallurgical coal."
按美元计算，NAB报道称，其非农商品价格指数在截至6月的三个月内季度环比下降了约7.0％。该银行预测，当前第三季度将进一步下降近55％，“主要是由铁矿石和冶金煤引领。”
"We have revised a number of commodity forecasts this month, with a weaker outlook for oil and base metals, but a stronger one for gold. NAB's Non-rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 10.9% in 2024 and a further 13.7% in 2025, led by coal and iron ore."
“本月我们已对多项商品预测进行了修订，对石油和基本金属的前景较为疲弱，但对黄金的前景较为乐观。NAB的非农商品价格指数预计将在2024年下跌10.9％，在2025年进一步下跌13.7％，主要受煤炭和铁矿石影响。”
With our terms of trade down 3.8% in 2023-24, NAB's forecasts suggest a much larger fall over the next year to 18 months.
根据NAB的预测，我们的贸易条件在2023-2024年下降了3.8%，预计在未来一年到18个月内将有更大的下降。
NAB's price forecasts for iron ore and coking coal are higher than current SGX prices. The spot price for iron ore is around US$91, and for premium coking coal, it is around US$198.50 for September and approximately US$193 a tonne for December (the front month).
NAB对铁矿石和焦煤的价格预测高于目前新加坡交易所的价格。铁矿石的现货价格约为91美元，高级焦煤的现货价格为9月约198.50美元，12月约193美元/吨（前月）。
NAB's current spot price forecasts are US$100 a tonne for iron ore and US$235 a tonne for coking coal.
NAB目前对铁矿石的现货价格预测为100美元/吨，对焦练煤的现货价格预测为235美元/吨。
NAB predicts significant weakening in the latter half of calendar 2025, with iron ore prices in the September and December quarters of that year forecast to be US$85 and US$84 a tonne, respectively. Coking coal prices are forecast to be US$190 a tonne.
NAB预测2025年下半年铁矿石价格将大幅下降，预计该年9月和12月季度的铁矿石价格分别为85美元/吨和84美元/吨。焦练煤价格预计为190美元/吨。
Oil prices were also downgraded in light of recent declines. NAB estimates that Brent crude, the global benchmark, will average US$82.70 in 2024 and US$80 a barrel in 2025. The most recent price was between US$72 and US$73 a barrel.
由于最近的下降，石油价格也被下调。NAB估计，全球基准品种布伦特原油价格将在2024年平均为每桶82.70美元，在2025年平均为每桶80美元。最近的价格在72至73美元/桶之间。
NAB is somewhat more optimistic about gold. "Given that gold has remained well above our previous price forecasts, we have revised our outlook. We expect gold to average US$2,315 per ounce in 2024 and edge only marginally lower to US$2,290 per ounce in 2025," NAB stated.
NAB对黄金持有相对乐观态度。NAB表示：“由于黄金价格一直保持在我们先前的价格预测之上，我们已经调整了我们的展望。我们预计黄金在2024年的平均价格为每盎司2315美元，2025年则略有下降，每盎司2290美元。”
The spot price on Thursday was around US$2,495 for September and US$2,525 for December, which is currently the main contract.
周四的现货价格约为9月2495美元和12月2525美元，目前是主要合约。