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Shareholders 45% Loss in Hefei Urban Construction Development (SZSE:002208) Partly Attributable to the Company's Decline in Earnings Over Past Three Years

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 5 18:16

Hefei Urban Construction Development Co., Ltd (SZSE:002208) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 11% in the last week. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. In fact, the share price is down 47% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Hefei Urban Construction Development saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 62% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 19% compound annual share price fall. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in. This positive sentiment is also reflected in the generous P/E ratio of 61.29.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

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SZSE:002208 Earnings Per Share Growth September 5th 2024

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Hefei Urban Construction Development's TSR for the last 3 years was -45%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 19% in the twelve months, Hefei Urban Construction Development shareholders did even worse, losing 29% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 5% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Hefei Urban Construction Development better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Hefei Urban Construction Development (3 are a bit unpleasant) that you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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