According to the Securities Times, on September 5th, Tesla (TSLA.US) AI team released its product roadmap, expecting to launch fully self-driving (FSD) in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, but still pending regulatory approval. Ping An Securities stated that the entry of FSD into China may become a "slingshot" in the domestic self-driving field, accelerating the grounding process of advanced intelligent driving in China. Leading companies or suppliers in the advanced intelligent driving field may benefit more. Related symbols: Baidu Group-SW (09888), Nexteer (01316), Zhejiang Shibao (01057), Zhixing Auto Technology (01274).

It is understood that Tesla's self-driving system is divided into two parts, including Fully Self-Driving (FSD) and Autopilot. The former provides full autonomous driving capabilities, such as high-speed navigation and urban road navigation, while the latter provides driver assistance functions aimed at improving driving safety and reducing stress. Tesla officials stated that these two self-driving systems are currently unable to drive independently and require the driver to take control at all times.

Since 2016, Musk has been exploring Tesla's FSD autonomous driving solution. In 2024, Tesla's FSD V12 was launched and widely pushed in North America. Currently, the FSD iteration is steadily progressing, with the latest 12.5.2 version parameters increased by 5 times the 12.4, integrating highway and urban technology stacks, further improving driving smoothness. Specific improvements include more natural and early lane change decisions, driver monitoring using only the visual system, end-to-end driving on highways, and FSD features on the Cybertruck.

Musk previously estimated that Tesla's FSD testing mileage needs to reach 6 billion miles to meet the requirements of global regulatory agencies. According to Tesla's latest financial report, as of the end of Q2, the cumulative mileage of FSD exceeded 1.6 billion miles. The company also stated that FSD's intervention-free driving mileage will surpass that of human drivers by the end of the year, and it is confident in achieving unsupervised Level 5 driving by next year.

In July of this year, Musk stated during Tesla's earnings conference call that FSD is expected to enter China by the end of the year, and FSD will be launched in China, Europe, and other countries after version 12.6, with the unsupervised version expected to achieve commercial implementation in sync with Robotaxi.

According to the data released by the China Passenger Car Association, in August, the total delivery from Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory was close to 0.0867 million vehicles, an increase of 17% compared to the previous month. Sales in China exceeded 0.063 million vehicles, a 37% increase. In terms of specific models, the domestic sales of Model Y exceeded 0.045 million vehicles, and Model 3 was 0.018 million vehicles.

Currently, Tesla's models on sale include the Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. In China, the main sales are the Model Y and Model 3, with the Model Y supporting Tesla's main sales volume in the Chinese market. Although Tesla's FSD has not yet been pushed in the Chinese market, it was already sold with the Model 3 when it was released, and a subscription model may be introduced in the future.

Dongfang Software Rui Chi's President and CEO, Du Qiang, once stated that Tesla's entry into the Chinese market with FSD has triggered a catfish effect, posing challenges and incentives for domestic autonomous driving. In the long run, this is a very good opportunity for improving the domestic autonomous driving capability.

Guosen Securities' previous research report pointed out that in the long term, Tesla is expected to create a series of AI terminal carriers (intelligent driving cars, robots, etc.) and empower new profit models through a combination of 'hardware cost reduction + software add-on + Robotaxi ride sharing'. On the software side, the combination of FSD software, software store, and subscription services enhances added value, while ride sharing opens up intelligent driving applications.

Ping An Securities further stated that the entry of FSD into China may become a "big fish" in the domestic autonomous driving field, accelerating the landing process of advanced smart driving in China, and leading car companies or suppliers in the advanced smart driving field will benefit more.

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On May 15th, Baidu Group's Manager of Autonomous Driving Technology, Xu Baoqiang, stated that regarding Tesla's upcoming Robotaxi (ride-sharing taxi), Baidu will consider possible collaboration opportunities based on Tesla's specific application model, market entry pace in China, and other factors.

Zhixing Automotive Technology (01274): Zhixing Automotive Technology is a Chinese autonomous driving solution provider specializing in autonomous driving domain controllers. The company has commercialized L2 to L2+ level autonomous driving solutions (L2+ is not the official classification under SAE (1) standards) and is developing L2 to L4 level autonomous driving solutions for vehicle manufacturers (OEMs). Public data shows that the company has obtained letters of intended purchase related to 16 well-known OEM customers. Such as Geely Automobile, Great Wall Automobile, Chery Automobile and Dongfeng Automobile, they have or are expected to purchase autonomous driving domain controllers and iFC products from the company.

Nexteer (01316): The company and its subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the Group) are mainly engaged in designing and manufacturing steering and power transmission systems, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), and automated driving (AD) systems as well as component business for auto manufacturers and other automotive-related companies.

Zhejiang Shibao (01057): Zhejiang Shibao's products include steering columns, DP-EPS, R-EPS, intelligent steering systems, and wire-controlled steering systems.